Three Ways

I think it bears mentioning that it's always worth trying to not overread the trends. A month ago, it looked like Hillary Clinton would probably win the nomination. At the same time, it was clear back then that Obama wasn't prohibitively far behind in Iowa or anything. And it was clear that winning Iowa would give him a big edge in winning in New Hampshire. And it was also clear that if Obama swept Iowa and New Hampshire, the powerful culinary workers union was unlikely to back Clinton. And it was also clear that if Obama won in two lily-white states, that the odds favored African-Americans flocking to his banner in South Carolina. And it was clear that all that would create a lot of momentum working against Clinton moving into the big states.

We knew all that, but because it looked like Obama probably wouldn't win Iowa, that pro-Obama cascade looked unlikely. Then Obama did win Iowa, making the cascade look likely. And I think it is the most probable outcome. But just as Obama once looked like he would lose in Iowa and then won, just because Clinton looks down now hardly makes it impossible for her to recover. In particular, I think there's an important sense in which Edwards is doing more to split the regular/warrior/beer track vote than he is to split an anti-Clinton vote, which is one reason that I haven't felt too torn up about my divided affections for both Edwards and Obama. But if Edwards doesn't build up any profile in the February 5 states, I think a head-to-head matchup is much trickier for Obama. The risk for Clinton is that her network of supporters might melt down before then, or else that Edwards' message might start to break through in a wider array of states and make it difficult for Clinton to consolidate a coalition of working class whites and Latinos.

Meanwhile, if there's such a thing as an anti-Obama constituency inside the party, it seems to me that Edwards would probably have an easier time beating Obama in a two-person race than would Clinton since in a lot of ways he's much better-situated to lead a working class counterinsurgency against Obama's fancy-pants fan club.