SOTU Prediction

Bush is going to hit this one out of the park. His detractors always forget that he's a master of oratory. As soon as he gets up there to the podium and gets a chance to explain clearly the ways in which his policies -- removing Saddam, slashing taxes, offering subsidies to business, standing up for the right to work, pulling out of treaties, keeping the fossile fuels flowing -- have contributed to the past seven years of robust economic growth (complete with four out of the five best years of the 28 year Reagan Boom) his numbers are going to start to turn around.

One problem the Republicans faced in the midterms (aside from earmarks run amok, something Bush is sure to tackle in the speech) is the long distance between November and January. During the spring and summer months the filter and the MSM's obsession with bad news out of Iraq took over. Having the presidentials all running away from Bush over the past year hasn't helped. But if Petraeus' testimony in September was one major turning point in the conservative comeback, I think tonight will go down as a second. The Democrats, hilariously, don't even see it coming.

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Matthew Yglesias is a former writer and editor at The Atlantic.

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