Some lessons from the Democratic race so far....

For enough Democrats, Clinton represents enough change... Obama represents more change, certainly, but the perfect isn't the enemy of the good when there are other factors to consider.

Organization matters. Obama seems to have won Iowa because he had months to do hundreds of rallies and perform his special brand of magic in person; his campaign spent a lot of money per voter (and per young voter, in particular); he simply out-hustled her in a state where hustling matters.

The biggest evidence for this interpretation is that he did everything in New Hampshire he did in Iowa, but at much less of a magnitude; a state that was arguably more favorable to him demographically (a highly educated, wealthy Dem electorate) proved resistant because he did not have the same time to wear down their resistances. In other words -- to get enough to buy a real change message in this age of skepticism takes a lot of time and energy, and he did not have it in New Hampshire.

Experience matters. In 2003, experience, and the lack of a well-funded alternative, carried John Kerry through New Hampshire, through a loss in South Carolina, all the way to the nomination. What we called "momentum" turned out to be "no clear, acceptable alternative." In 2008, the Democrats do have an acceptable, well-funded alternative, albeit one with a transformative message. Is there enough time in California, Alabama, Georgia, New York, Arizona, Missouri.. to do what he did in Iowa?

Also: the anti-war energy in the Democratic Party, first kindled in 2002, has dissapated as a political force. Democrats still favor a precipitous withdrawal from Iraq, but enough time has elapsed since 2002 to allow the strong feelings to attenuate, and the party has turned inward since then. Iraq is no more than an applause line right now.

** The swing constituency seems to be college educated women, who have a complicated relationship to Hillary Clinton and the babyboomers. Iowa won these women in Iowa, according to estimates, and Clinton won them (narrowly) in New Hampshire. They vote in large numbers in major Feb. 5 states.

** Perestroika works! Hillary Clinton's new habit of three press avails per week, one-on-one interviews with network correspondents on requests, answering questions after every speech -- it seems to have loosened up her press corps a bit, she certainly seems very comfortable doing it, and her accessibility has allowed the Clinton campaign to make sure that Clinton drives the daily headlines.