Romney's Last Stand In Michigan

Michigan will be Mitt Romney's last stand; his advisers are cautiously optimistic. They know McCain has a built-in advantage because independents won't have any reason to vote in the Democratic primary, but they also know that McCain has give the independents a reason to vote.

Romney's campaign is worried that Mike Huckabee will siphon away social conservatives; Huckabee's allies in the state are actively working church networks. Although they've got a paid organization in the state, they're seeing an influx of McCain volunteers.

The Romney spin out of New Hampshire is this: McCain benefited from the total collapse in New Hampshire of Rudy Giuliani; virtually all of his support when to McCain; Mike Huckabee's third place finish may well have siphoned off a few points of Republicans from Romney; the Union Leader endorsement was incredibly important for Romney. McCain's special relationship with New Hampshire voters and his high favorability ratings may have inoculated himself against Romney's negative attacks.

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Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

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