Official NH Prediction

The polls and what we can tell of turnout all point toward an Obama win. But thanks to the nature of the "expectations game" I don't expect winning to do him much further good. Note once again that the main impact of the primary system is not so much to empower the voters of New Hampshire as it is to empower the political press. Bill Clinton was dubbed the "comeback kid" based on a number two finish in New Hampshire, and the press could easily spin a Clinton loss by as much as 4-6 percentage points as a comeback moral victory that sets the stage for a Clinton rebound.

Don't expect that to happen since the press doesn't like Clinton that much, and Team Clinton wasn't complaining about this dynamic in 1992 when it worked in their favor.

That said, the press will be bored of Obamamania before February 5, and I bet the reporters tasked to cover Clinton wake up tomorrow morning realizing that it's no good for their careers if the Democratic primary ends this week, so the fight will continue.