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Many Polls; Same Results
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Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton by an average of 7-10 points; John McCain is 4 to 6 points ahead of Mitt Romney.
** A weekend sample from CBS News of the same voters from its November survey gives Barack Obama a 35 to 28 to 19 lead over Clinton and Edwards. Clinton's electability quotient dropped from 72 to 41 points, suggesting that Iowa's propulsive effect -- a social cuing effect, mostly -- was huge. Obama leads independents by a lot; Clinton leads Democrats by a little; there are more Dems than independents in the sample, but Obama's margin among them more than makes up for his lag on Democrats.
** Marist has Obama at 36, Clinton at 28, and Edwards at 22. For GOPers, McCain leads Romney by 4 points, 35 to 31, but the margin of error is +/- 4.5%.
** The Republican race is close, according to USA Today/Gallup: McCain leads 34 to 30 (outside the margin of error for that poll, but barely). A whopping 30% remain undecided, and economic issues / illegal immigration are the top two important issues.
** On the Dem side, Obama leads Clinton 41 to 28, with Edwards at 19. 30% remain undecided, but 31% of the sample say they are "certain" to vote for Obama. Iraq, the economy and health care are the top three issues. By 51% to 26%, voters say Obama has the new ideas that would solve the country's problems.
** A weekend sample from CBS News of the same voters from its November survey gives Barack Obama a 35 to 28 to 19 lead over Clinton and Edwards. Clinton's electability quotient dropped from 72 to 41 points, suggesting that Iowa's propulsive effect -- a social cuing effect, mostly -- was huge. Obama leads independents by a lot; Clinton leads Democrats by a little; there are more Dems than independents in the sample, but Obama's margin among them more than makes up for his lag on Democrats.
** Marist has Obama at 36, Clinton at 28, and Edwards at 22. For GOPers, McCain leads Romney by 4 points, 35 to 31, but the margin of error is +/- 4.5%.
** The Republican race is close, according to USA Today/Gallup: McCain leads 34 to 30 (outside the margin of error for that poll, but barely). A whopping 30% remain undecided, and economic issues / illegal immigration are the top two important issues.
** On the Dem side, Obama leads Clinton 41 to 28, with Edwards at 19. 30% remain undecided, but 31% of the sample say they are "certain" to vote for Obama. Iraq, the economy and health care are the top three issues. By 51% to 26%, voters say Obama has the new ideas that would solve the country's problems.
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