Local 226'S Power In Nevada

Barack Obama's confidence-inducing endorsement by the Culinary Workers Local 226 in Las Vegas is a major boost to his chances in Nevada. 226's endorsement was ferociously courted by all the leading candidates, all of whom are well aware of its value.

But there are reasons to believe that the endorsement won't matter as much to the outcome of the caucuses themselves.

Consider: while the union claims 60,000 active members, many are not registered voters because many are not citizens.

Most 266 members live in four, compact Assembly districts in Clark County, but on the day of the caucuses, at least a third of them will be working. (It's MLK weekend -- one of the busiest weekends of the year in Las Vegas.)

The caucus rules helpfully carved out at-large caucus precincts -- this is now the subject of a last-minute lawsuit, possibly initiated by Clinton supporters -- on the sites of major employers, but the delegate haul from them will be small: less than 5% of the total. And remember: delegates in Nevada, as in Iowa, are allocated proportionally.

Local 226 has greater sway in state elections, where the popular vote matters, and in Assembly districts. But its power in caucuses is unproven, and there are reasons to believe that it will not make too much of a difference for Barack Obama.

There are reasons to believe that members of the Culinary Workers, like the SEIU, which just endorsed Obama in the state, are not solidly behind Obama, although a majority, or a plurality probably support him.

Now -- the union has put its reputation on the line here, and when the Culinary Workers "go all out, they go all out," one Nevada political analyst told me.

Make no mistake: Obama's campaign is glad to have the 226 in their corner. But some journalists -- myself included -- have portrayed the endorsement as dispositive. On second look, it just isn't.