1. The turnout model is weird, and even the Obama campaign doesn't project a turnout universe of 200,000, including 40% independents. (OK, Gordon Fischer, Obama's Iowa co-chair does, but..) ...
2. As NBC's Chuck Todd pointed out to me, when you go to Obama events, you do see a lot of independents and even some Republicans.
3. If Obama is going to win the caucuses, he's probably going to win big, thanks to an enormous infusion of new caucusers. If Clinton wins, it's because hard corps Democrats turned out in larger numbers.
4. For all the bellyaching about the poll, Ann Selzer, the pollster, is considered to be the best in the businesses and has earned the benefit of the doubt.
5. It's monstrously difficult to poll the Iowa Democratic caucuses... and easier to poll the Republican...well, they call it a caucus, but it's really a primary.