GOP National Picture

A graph based on the same national polling referenced before, this time for the Republican side. John McCain is obviously surging, but his level of support is much closer to the percentage of voters Barack Obama is pulling in than to what Hillary has. If all of these campaigns stay in the race through February 5, the fragmentation of the race will likely have some odd consequences. McCain could move into a dominant position by winning almost everywhere without getting more than forty percent of the vote anywhere. Alternatively, if the states go in different directions the delegate allocation rules (which vary from place to place) could start looking very significant.