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Everything's Coming Up Rudy
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John Heileman says that despite it all Rudy Giuliani's situation now looks pretty good. Ross tries to pour some cold water on that, but I think Giuliani could easily close the narrow gap that now exists between him and McCain in Florida.
The problem for Giuliani, however, is that the only way for him to win in Florida or anywhere else if for their to be enough candidates in the field for someone with his record to sneak through with a pretty thin plurality. In Florida he'll likely have Huckabee, McCain, and Romney in the field as three viable pro-life alternatives, plus a pro-life Ron Paul soaking up some votes. It's hard to imagine that happening over and over again in enough states for Giuliani to win a majority of delegates. More realistically, Rudy might win a couple of big clutches of delegates, taking them off the table, and raising the odds of a brokered convention scenario.
The problem for Giuliani, however, is that the only way for him to win in Florida or anywhere else if for their to be enough candidates in the field for someone with his record to sneak through with a pretty thin plurality. In Florida he'll likely have Huckabee, McCain, and Romney in the field as three viable pro-life alternatives, plus a pro-life Ron Paul soaking up some votes. It's hard to imagine that happening over and over again in enough states for Giuliani to win a majority of delegates. More realistically, Rudy might win a couple of big clutches of delegates, taking them off the table, and raising the odds of a brokered convention scenario.
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