A Reason For Edwards's Confidence: The Second Choicers

John Edwards is said to be in the catbird's seat to finish strong in the Iowa caucuses because most polls show that he is the second choice favorite of a plurality of Iowa Democrats, and is especially strong among those Democrats – Bill
Richardson and Chris Dodd included – who, in many precincts, won’t be able to meet the viability threshold of fifteen percent. (Or higher, depending on...well, never mind.)

Remember -- or behold: at the caucuses, there are two preference allocation alignments – if an alignment group fails to make threshold, its members are free to either leave the caucus or realign with a group that has made threshold. Between the two groupings there’s a wonderful outburst of deliberative democracy. Those preference groups who’ve “made threshold” will spend about a half hour making the case for their candidate, either one to one or in small groups. Then there’s a second alignment, which is converted to a percentage, which is converted to an estimated share of statewide delegates. (Candidates who didn't make threshold on the first try could make it on the second try if those viable candidates somehow lose supporters...)

There is not a one-to-one correspondence between the make up of the alignment groups and the percentage of statewide delegates they receive. Depending on the percentages, a larger preference group could receive the same number of delegates as a smaller percentage group.

So you can see how, if the race is “tied” – something an entrance poll would show – Edwards has an edge if he has a better than even chance of adding caucusers to his alignment groups.

BTW: Edwards aides say they haven’t made any pre-emptive deals with any other campaigns to share support if a candidate fails to be viable in a particular precinct. In 2004, deals were made with Dennis Kucinich’s campaign, but aides say that, for various reasons, the deals may have hurt Edwards in certain very liberal precincts. Edwards caucus precinct captains will be equipped with specific arguments to make for supporters of different candidates. Biden supporters, as an example, would be targeted differently than Dodd supporters.