Third Quarter Fundraising Prediction Time: The Democrats

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Many of you have asked for it and now, after a round of phone calls, here it is. I reserve the right to change my reporting as further information warrants.

Sen. Hillary Clinton: between $20M and $25M. Donors are coming home, and many who were on the fence seem to believe her nomination is inevitable. They're coming aboard too late to get anything substantive from the Clinton trough, although this week's homeland security lobbyist/access fundraiser shows that the Clinton team is capable of being creative in that respect. By this point, one fundraiser told me, these donors don't want to not be on board if and when Clinton wins.

Sen. Barack Obama: a ceiling of $20M. It's not clear whether this ceiling is artificial or real, whether it's an attempt by campaign insiders to manipulate expectations or to tamp then down. Obama will still wind up accumulating more donors than Clinton this quarter; he might not raise as much.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards: around $5M. It's been a tough quarter, money-wise. Edwards's natural fundraising reseviors are dry, his anti-lobbying/donor shtick probably shooed others away, and some internal staff turnover issues have reduced the efficiency of his fundraising operation.

Gov. Bill Richardson: between $4M and $6M. He could beat John Edwards this quarter.

Sen. Chris Dodd and Sen. Joe Biden: each will probably raise less than $2M.

Tomorrow: the Republicans.

If you're a Democratic donor or a Republican donor, e-mail me. I will go to jail to protect your identity. mambinder@theatlantic.com

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Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

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