Third Quarter Fundraising Prediction Time: The Democrats

More

Many of you have asked for it and now, after a round of phone calls, here it is. I reserve the right to change my reporting as further information warrants.

Sen. Hillary Clinton: between $20M and $25M. Donors are coming home, and many who were on the fence seem to believe her nomination is inevitable. They're coming aboard too late to get anything substantive from the Clinton trough, although this week's homeland security lobbyist/access fundraiser shows that the Clinton team is capable of being creative in that respect. By this point, one fundraiser told me, these donors don't want to not be on board if and when Clinton wins.

Sen. Barack Obama: a ceiling of $20M. It's not clear whether this ceiling is artificial or real, whether it's an attempt by campaign insiders to manipulate expectations or to tamp then down. Obama will still wind up accumulating more donors than Clinton this quarter; he might not raise as much.

Ex-Sen. John Edwards: around $5M. It's been a tough quarter, money-wise. Edwards's natural fundraising reseviors are dry, his anti-lobbying/donor shtick probably shooed others away, and some internal staff turnover issues have reduced the efficiency of his fundraising operation.

Gov. Bill Richardson: between $4M and $6M. He could beat John Edwards this quarter.

Sen. Chris Dodd and Sen. Joe Biden: each will probably raise less than $2M.

Tomorrow: the Republicans.

If you're a Democratic donor or a Republican donor, e-mail me. I will go to jail to protect your identity. mambinder@theatlantic.com

Jump to comments
Presented by

Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

A Delightful, Pixar-Inspired Cartoon About the Toys in Your Cereal Box

The story of an action figure and his reluctant sidekick, who trek across a kitchen in search of treasure.


Elsewhere on the web

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

Juice Cleanses: The Worst Diet

A doctor tries the ever-popular Master Cleanse. Sort of.

Video

Why Did I Study Physics?

Using hand-drawn cartoons to explain an academic passion

Video

What If Emoji Lived Among Us?

A whimsical ad imagines what life would be like if emoji were real.

Video

Living Alone on a Sailboat

"If you think I'm a dirtbag, then you don't understand the lifestyle."

Feature

The Future of Iced Coffee

Are artisan businesses like Blue Bottle doomed to fail when they go mainstream?

Writers

Up
Down

More in Politics

Just In