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Marc Ambinder

Marc Ambinder - Marc Ambinder is the White House correspondent for National Journal and a contributing editor at The Atlantic. More

Marc Ambinder is the White House correspondent for National Journal. He previously served as the politics editor, and is now a contributing editor, for The Atlantic, where he curated the influential Politics channel on TheAtlantic.com and contributed to the magazine. He was also a chief political consultant to CBS News. Earlier, at NJ's Hotline, Ambinder was the founding editor of "Hotline On Call," a pathbreaking political news blog. He also worked as a producer and reporter for the ABC News Political Unit and was one of the founders of ABC's "The Note." Born in New York City, raised in Central Florida, Ambinder is a 2001 graduate of Harvard and lives in Washington, D.C.

Clinton is To Experience As Obama Is To Fresh Ideas

By Marc Ambinder
Aug 15 2007, 6:49 PM ET Comment

And which matters more? A new CBS News poll finds that 51% of registered voters don't think Barack Obama has the "right experience" to be president; 29 percent do. Hillary Clinton has the right experience, according to 59% of those surveyed; 35% don't. By contrast: WOULD THEY TRY NEW WAYS OR FOLLOW TRADITIONAL APPROACHES?
             Obama                Clinton
New ways      61%                   43%
Traditional    18%                  40%
approaches 

CBS sampled a large cross-section of registered voters, which means that this poll is a useful gauge of mass opinion; there's no direct connection between these results and surveys of likely primary voters in states.

Ok, so do voters favor new ways or traditional approaches? To what extent is this a change election? 63% favor new ways; 24 percent favor traditional approaches.
That's kind of a stale question, though, right? Most poll respondents probably think "new ways" is the right answer. How about a more directed question: which attribute do voters desire more?

EXPERIENCE VS. FRESH IDEAS?

Experience          44%
Fresh ideas         41%
What about Democrats only?
Among Democratic primary voters who value experience, Clinton leads Obama by more than three to one, 49% to 16%. Among those who value fresh ideas,
The poll doesn't ask the next logical questions in the sequence: of those Democrats paying attention now, which matters more? Of those Democrats not paying attention, which mattes more? For voters in Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina, which matters more?

Ok -- let's assume that folks don't think Obama has the "right experience." Does that mean they think he'll make the wrong decisions?

Two thirds of voters think it likely he would make good decisions about dealing with foreign countries, slightly fewer than say the same about Clinton.
What about Obama's ability to handle an international crisis?
Just 33% do, while more, 49%, are uneasy. Voters are also skeptical about Clinton’s ability to do so, although more voters have confidence in her.
Final salient question. How sticky are Clinton's supporters right now?
Both Obama’s and Clinton’s supporters are energized by their candidates. 63% of Democratic primary voters who back Obama say they strongly favor him, as do 61% of Clinton’s supporters.


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