Write The Lede For A Story About McCain's Day

How will the press cover Sen. John McCain's decision today to jab Mitt Romney on abortion and Hillary Clinton on earmarks?

If Mitt Romney was editing the copy, the lede of the story would wind up like this:

Sen. John McCain, in a final sign that his flailing campaign is stuttering to a finish, angrily attacked Mitt Romney for no good reason and betrayed his desparation by using a four-year-old out-of-context YouTube video to get attention. Golly.

It's true that the laws of political physics very rarely account for the political equivalent of full-frontal nudity in June. In past cycles, McCain would be declared a dead-man walking because no one attacks this early unless they're in trouble.

But those laws may be inoperative. The new political-geographical-media-technological landscape operates by a set of completely different rules. The metrics are different. The chess board is multidimensional.

It'll take a few cycles to figure out the limits of these new laws. As Jonathan Martin points out, by every conventional metric (except for, arguably, fundraising -- $15M a quarter isn't bad) -- McCain has some challenges.

Bob Novak is analytically vicious in his nonlinkable column:

More significant are the negative motivations for supporting the top three candidates, and McCain in particular. As we have argued previously, much Republican support for the top three stands on three pillars, or the Three D's: disagreement with Giuliani, distrust of Romney and dislike for McCain. For example, a conservative Republican who feels overwhelmed by antipathy toward Romney and Giuliani will reluctantly back McCain on these or similar grounds: "McCain may be too liberal on taxes and guns, but at least he is very conservative on earmarks and spending, he's tough on terrorism, and he has a pro-life voting record on abortion." The same sort of thinking applies, in varying degree, to all three candidates.

But with the entry of Thompson into the race, many conservatives will feel -- rightly or wrongly -- that they may have a conservative alternative and need not settle for someone they merely distrust or dislike less than the others. This is the key to Thompson's effortless success so far, his climb from nowhere to 21 percent nationally. (It is also a reason Thompson could suddenly implode once he is defined.)

With Thompson's candidacy all but declared, the outlook becomes even more bleak for McCain. The big money that McCain has been courting could instead flow to the newcomer. Romney, who will never be without money, is sprinting ahead in the early states. Giuliani remains the overall frontrunner. Thompson is luring McCain supporters into his camp.

McCain may be able to overcome any one of these setbacks, but can he survive them all simultaneously? The futures markets are already counting him out, putting his contract at $12 to the $29 price on Thompson.