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The USA Today Poll: Look Closer At The Sample
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Big news? First major national poll to show Barack Obama in a dead heat with Hillary Clinton?
Recall that blue collar, downscale Dems like Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama's leading the field among Dem-leaning independents. So a poll sample that includes 160 independents -- about a fourth of the sample -- is likely to skew in Obama's direction.
In New Hampshire, independents can vote, and Obama's campaign is recruiting them. But to the degree that Iowa's caucuses influence the outcome in New Hampshire, it's hard to justify including so many independents in such a fairly small sample. In Iowa, only hard-core Dems vote in the caucuses.
Recall that blue collar, downscale Dems like Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama's leading the field among Dem-leaning independents. So a poll sample that includes 160 independents -- about a fourth of the sample -- is likely to skew in Obama's direction.
In New Hampshire, independents can vote, and Obama's campaign is recruiting them. But to the degree that Iowa's caucuses influence the outcome in New Hampshire, it's hard to justify including so many independents in such a fairly small sample. In Iowa, only hard-core Dems vote in the caucuses.
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