The UAW Talks And 2008

I am certain I'll be inconsistent and self-contradictory at times, but one mantra, one tenet of politics, one of the underlying equations that governs political reality I hope never to forget is that unanticipated events, moments and stories drive presidential elections more than any other factor.

So with that in mind, I'd like to try to anticipate one such event:

In August, the United Auto Workers sit down with the Big Three to try to hammer out a new labor contract. To call it a gargantuan task is almost insufficient: the only bargaining chip both sides really possess is their respective existences.

If the talks go badly, there'll be a lot of unhappy people in key general election states, like Ohio and Michigan.

One possibility is that the automakers will propose a "grand bargain" to cover retiree heatlh care costs once and for all, in exchange for some sort of concession from the union. (GM has floated this).

UAW president Ron Gettlefinger is one of the smartest guys to ever wear a union chief's hat, and he's politically savvy, too. No doubt he will do what he can to make sure that the presidential candidates are interested, and, to the extent possible, engaged in the public debate over the negotiations.

One other interesting possibility: John Edwards has many contacts in the hedge fund world, including many people who are likely involved in the Cerberus/Chrysler deal. Might he use his leverage and persuasive powers to help broker a deal? If he did, it'd be a huge coup.

On the other hand, I imagine that neither side really wants political actors to intervene, per se.