The GOP and the Hispanics

Jonathan Singer points out that the GOP is now getting hammered among Hispanic voters. Bush had made significant progress on this front and "built the GOP share to 35% in 2000 and at least 40% in 2004" defeats that pulled the party close enough to win one close election and "win" another. "By 2005, nearly one-third of Hispanics called themselves Republicans or leaned that way."

Now, though, as we can see on the graphic even when you push people to lean, only 20 percent are willing to call themselves Republicans. Obviously, if GOP self-identification can go down 10+ percentage points in two years, there's also the possibility of a GOP recovery. It appears, however, that the party is going to be stuck on an anti-immigration kick at least through the fall of 2008. Meanwhile, since the Hispanic share of the electorate keeps growing, Republicans really can't afford to even be just treading water.