Some Second Quarter Fundraising Predictions -- UPDATED


Bear in mind that I retain the right to revise these as I receive additional information.

The Democrats:

Sen. Barack Obama: $28M-$35M
-- only a very few Obama staffers have access to estimates, and they're not talking
-- almost entirely primary money
-- cash on hand should be north of $32M

Sen. Hillary Clinton: $26M-28M
-- The primary/general election ratio will be around 5 to 1).
-- Projected cash on hand should be north of $40M

Ex-Sen. John Edwards: $8.5M-11M
-- virtually all for the primary
-- cash on hand should be greater than $15M

Gov. BIll Richardson: $3-7M
Sen. Joe Biden: $3-5M
Sen. Chris Dodd: $2-M

The Republicans:

Gov. Mitt Romney: $17M-20M
-- Romney did NOT have the highest burn rate, contrary to what I wrote earlier. He spent the most money, but his burn rate was well below that of Sen. John McCain's. I'll assume the 50% rate held through the second quarter, so he's in reasonably good shape if he has more than $18M in reserves.

Ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani: $14M-17M
-- cash on hand should be north of $16M assuming a burn rate of less than 50%

Sen. John McCain: $13M-15M
-- cash on hand should be north of $14M assuming a burn rate of less than 50%

Gov. Mike Huckabee: $2M-4M

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Marc Ambinder is an Atlantic contributing editor. He is also a senior contributor at Defense One, a contributing editor at GQ, and a regular contributor at The Week.

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