Mideast Oil Forever
I am surprised that The Atlantic Monthly would print an article written
by U.S. Department of Energy employees advertising DOE programs: "Mideast Oil
Forever?" by Joseph J. Romm and Charles B. Curtis (April Atlantic). I
agree that we are "sleepwalking" into what will become a significant energy
shortage by 2020. However, the reason that we can't plan ahead and make
significant progress on alternative energy sources is that we as a nation
insist on believing that the world is as we wish it were rather than as it
actually is, so we insist that soft energy sources will be sufficient.
Let's take wind power and photovoltaic (solar) cells as examples. The authors
state that with continued public-private partnership in technology advancement,
wind could hit three cents per kilowatt-hour by 2020. Good grief, that's
twenty-four years away! If we can travel to the moon, how is it we can't make a
competitive wind-power machine? How many hundreds of millions of R&D
dollars are we talking about spending on this technology in the next
twenty-five years? What are we basing this prediction on--blades made of
"miraculem" and superconducting generators? Maybe there is a more fundamental
As for photovoltaic cells, the authors indicate that the amount of power sold
worldwide has grown from four to eighty megawatts over the past sixteen years
and that after 2030 sales could exceed $100 billion. To start with, eighty
megawatts is nothing in the scheme of things, and the year 2030 is so far away
that one can only conclude that PVs simply won't be competitive until the world
goes through a severe oil shock after oil production peaks. This means that the
U.S. consumer will have to suffer a significant increase in his electricity
bill before solar becomes attractive. We could do this tomorrow by placing a
large tax on oil, gas, and coal in accordance with their negative environmental
impacts. Although this might be an appropriate action, I would rather focus on
development in areas that can produce results that will not cause the cost of
electricity to quadruple and the economy to go into a tailspin.
In your otherwise excellent article about renewable
energy technologies we were surprised to find no mention of geothermal
heating and cooling technology. This technology, by taking advantage
of the earth's constant moderate temperature just below the surface,
efficiently captures heat in winter and deposits it in the summer. The
emerging geothermal industry creates high-skill employment, does not
pollute the air, has a short payback period, incurs low operating costs
compared with conventional systems, and saves energy dollars. Richard
Stockton College, home of the largest closed-loop geothermal system in
the world, has saved more than 25 percent annually on heating and
cooling bills for its academic buildings. Geothermal is one more way
to reduce oil dependency and is deserving of short-term economic
nurturing by the federal as well as state governments. In fact, the
DOE and the EPA have worked in partnership with the electric-utilities
industry and manufacturers to promote geothermal technology, with the
hope of investing $100 million to bring this technology into the
mainstream by the year 2000.
Geothermal Research Project
Richard Stockton College
In "Mideast Oil Forever?" Joseph J. Romm and
Charles B. Curtis warn that congressional budget-cutters threaten to
end America's leadership in new energy technologies that protect the
environment and limit dependency on oil from the unstable Persian Gulf
Although we agree with the article that environmental protection is crucial and
the risks of growing dependence on foreign oil are real, we disagree with the
article's focus on renewable sources of energy as the solution. Renewables
certainly have a role in America's distant energy future, but the best
near-term solution for bridging energy security and environmental
protection--with economic growth--is clean, economical, and abundant domestic
Natural gas provides about 25 percent of the nation's energy needs today, while
renewables contribute only seven percent. The market share for renewables
cannot and will not change anytime in the next several decades, even with major
increases in government funding, which are required in the Shell scenario cited
in the article. Thus renewables can make very little contribution to reducing
oil imports or improving the environment in our lifetime. However, the American
Gas Association estimates that natural gas could replace one million barrels of
imported oil a day by 2000 and two million barrels a day by 2010, given a
concerted national effort to convert factories, homes, and particularly
vehicles to natural gas--and would simultaneously result in environmental
To offer a balanced view of the DOE's valuable research-and-development
program, the article needed to recognize the significant contributions that can
be made by its natural-gas programs, which have been underfunded for years. In
these times of budget constraints, the DOE should focus on research and
technology that show promise for reducing oil imports in the more immediate
future and offer a rapid payback for the American consumer. That means natural
Michael Baly III
President and CEO
American Gas Association
Searching for solutions that would allow us to continue to live in
sprawling communities and rely almost solely on single-occupant automobiles
simply perpetuates all the other problems that reliance on automobiles has
brought us. A variety of professionals are beginning to look at different ways
to build our cities, so that people can walk, bicycle, and use public transit,
instead of continuing with highly wasteful land-use patterns. It is truly
unfortunate that much of the rest of the world is now seeking to emulate our
bad transportation-policy decisions of the past eighty years.
Alternative fuels should be seen not as the ultimate goal but as a partial fix
in our search to move people without emphasizing one person, one vehicle.
San Francisco, Calif.
Your April cover story on the coming energy crisis was worth the year's
subscription price, if only for its comprehensive evaluation of how much oil
and gas the world will be consuming over the next forty years.
On the supply side, though, the authors did not scratch the surface. The fact
is that the earth has not had its surface really scratched at this point in the
quest for liquid oil and gas. Of the 700,000 exploratory wells drilled on the
planet in the past 140 years, since oil was first discovered in Pennsylvania,
95 percent were drilled in the developed world of North America and Europe, and
almost 75 percent of the total in the United States--not including Alaska.
Only five percent of the total were drilled in Latin America, Asia, or Africa
--which is to say that India and China will indeed be putting great demands on
the world oil supply as they emerge as developing nations. But their people are
sitting on vast oceans of oil and gas that have not been discovered, because
there has been no exploration in these countries.
Why has there been so much exploration and discovery here? The most important
reason is that Americans are the only people on earth who automatically have
mineral rights to the surface property they own. Once the countries of the rest
of the world begin giving their own citizens these rights, instead of hoarding
them for the state, exploration will expand dramatically, and so will
Joseph Romm and Charles Curtis reply:
We agree with Michael Baly that natural gas is going to play a key role in
meeting our growing demand for energy. Natural gas is the premier hydrocarbon
in our country's fossil-fuel-based energy portfolio, not only because of the
efficiency and the economic and environmental benefits of natural gas, but also
as part of our effort to reduce our rising national dependence on imported oil.
To use Daniel Yergin's phrase, it has become the recognized "prince of
The Department of Energy has been out front in supporting the increased use of
natural gas in electricity generation, in industrial co-generation and process
systems, in residential and commercial heating and cooling technologies, and in
natural-gas-vehicle markets. As noted in the article, small gas-fired turbines
and fuel cells using natural gas will be essential for the growth of a more
broadly distributed and cleaner global electricity system, which is one reason
that the department supports their development.
Renewable energy will also play an increasingly important role in the next
century. The nation is, however, only slowly recovering from the 90 percent cut
in federal funding for renewable energy that occurred in the 1980s. Charles
Boardman seems to have missed a key point of our article. We can make and have
made a competitive wind-power machine. Rising electricity prices are not
required to achieve significant use of renewable energy in the marketplace.
Rather, we believe that with continued R&D we will see growth in all forms
of renewables even if the price of electricity from traditional sources
Kenneth Harrison and Lynn Stiles are correct that geothermal energy also holds
great promise. The geothermal heat pump they describe can both improve the
nation's environment and lower our energy bills. It provides exactly the kind
of social and economic benefits that make it perfect for the type of
public-private partnership the department has been pursuing.
The bottom line is that the demand for energy is going to grow rapidly in the
coming decades. A number of fuels and technologies will be used to meet that
demand, because different sectors of the economy have different energy needs
and different parts of the world have different energy resources. The nation
that is the world leader in the development and use of the cleanest and most
efficient energy supply and end-use technologies will create more jobs, have
more competitive industries, and enjoy the highest environmental quality of
life of any nation in the world. Maintaining that leadership is a key role of
the Department of Energy.
Advice & Consent
Nicholas Lemann's discussion of Robert Putnam's "Bowling Alone" ("Kicking in
Groups," April Atlantic) may have created a new parlor game for those of
us who, like Lemann, are skeptical of Putnam's theory. The game is to identify
counterexamples of the Putnam scenario.
Three that occurred to me almost immediately were the Adopt-a-Highway program,
the banding together of senior citizens for an immense array of activities, and
groups espousing environmental causes.
The Adopt-a-Highway program blankets a large part of the United States today.
Within it groups assume responsibility for removing litter from specified
stretches of roadway, usually two miles each. The roadside signs I have seen
identify service clubs, fraternities, sororities, businesses, and families as
pickup volunteers. The program began in Texas less than twenty years ago and
has spread to every state in the union, without the benefit of a national
association or federal intervention. In Oregon alone more than a thousand
groups pick up litter along 3,000 miles of highway. It is difficult to imagine
a more direct civic activity.
In the increasingly large numbers of retirement communities (all of the Sun
Cities and their clones, for example) residents form groups for all manner of
games, crafts, hobbies, and intellectual interests. On a recent visit to Sun
City Palm Desert, in California, I noted nearly forty clubs that had been
formed by the local population of less than 2,000 people. Whatever it is that
these people are interested in doing, they most certainly appear not to desire
to do it alone.
Environmental groups, from the long-established Sierra Club to splinter groups
of environmental radicals, have grown apace in recent years. The success of The
Nature Conservancy in particular is illustrative, depending as it does not only
on fundraising and the efforts of paid staff but also on the direct involvement
of many volunteers.
Times change. What was important yesterday loses meaning today. The Grange
halls and American Legion posts may be nearly empty, but computer-user-group
meetings overflow. Americans still group together, but they are also pragmatic
to the core, and no longer have the time to spend on ritual and outmoded
causes. Instead of drinking at the Elks Club bar, they attend investment-club
meetings, and have increasingly deserted the bowling alley in favor of the
men's (or women's) association at their local golf course.
I firmly believe, based on Putnam's measure, that America's civic virtue is
Richard H. Hill
R. W. Apple Jr. may be a hell of a travel writer, but on the history of the
Weimar Republic he is something less than well-informed ("The Old Made New,"
April Atlantic). Common mistake that it may be, it is not true that the
Weimar Republic, as he states, "flourished briefly between the wars and then
succumbed to hyperinflation." The infamous Weimar hyperinflation occurred in
1923. After the implementation of the Dawes Plan, in 1924, the German economy
did flourish until 1929-1930, when the American-bred Great Depression took hold
of Germany's economy. From then until Hitler usurped power, in 1933-1934 (the
actual demise of the Weimar Republic), Germany's economic crisis was a
depression, or deflation, of the currency along with high unemployment--the
condition opposite to inflation!
Probably disillusionment with the German economy lingered from the inflationary
crisis into the depression, but the direct economic cause of the Weimar's fall
was the latter.
John Mark Krenkel
Heber City, Utah
"For Everyman, by Everyman," by David Schiff, an article about Irving Berlin in
the March Atlantic, should have credited A-R Editions, of Madison,
Wisconsin, as the publishers of the three-volume edition of Berlin's songs for
the American Musicological Society.
Copyright © 1996 by The Atlantic Monthly Company. All rights
The Atlantic Monthly; July 1996; Letters; Volume 278, No. 1;