Housing and the Crisis, Part II

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Yesterday, I compared 2009 housing prices to their 2006 baseline. Today, I turn to the change in housing prices. The graph below plots the percentage units change in housing prices between 2006 and 2009 against the 2006 baseline price.

There is a significant relationship between the two. The slope is steep, with a correlation of  -0.42 and the R2 of 0.19. Metros above the line have seen drops which are less than would be expected based on national trends, while those below the line have seen drops in excess of the national trend. The numbers in parentheses are the percentage difference between the actual and predicted values.

Under-performers: These are regions where the decline in housing prices has been greater than predicted based on the national trend. The biggest losers are metros in the Sunbelt and Rustbelt. In Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL, for example, housing prices have declined 47.3 percent more than expected based on the national trend. For Akron, OH, the figure is 44.9 percent; Lansing, MI (-39.6 percent); Cleveland, OH (-35.4 percent); Grand Rapids, MI (-33.9 percent); Phoenix, AZ (-31.7 percent); Sarasota, FL (-29.7 percent); Riverside, CA (-29.3 percent); Toledo, OH (-29.3 percent); Palm Bay-Melbourne, FL (-29.1 percent); Sacramento, CA (-28.8 percent); Canton, OH (-28.3 percent); and Las Vegas, NV (-28.2 percent). Miami (-18.56 percent), Atlanta (-18.05 percent), Chicago (-11.72 percent), Los Angeles (-10.07 percent), and Washington, D.C. also performed worse than expected.

Over-performers: There were again a series of regions that performed better than the national trend. These are places where housing prices have held up better than expected based on the national pattern. In Honolulu, HI, for example, housing prices remain 31.1 percent above what could be expected based on the national pattern. Cumberland, MD, a suburb of Washington, D.C., has held up 30.4 percent better than expected. In Salt Lake City, UT, the figure is 29.8 percent; Bismarck, ND (26.2 percent); Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX (25.9 percent); Farmington, NM (25.7 percent); Binghamton, NY (24.2 percent); Columbia, MO (22.4 percent); Raleigh, NC (21.3 percent); and Austin, TX (19.7 percent). New York (11.3 percent), Philadelphia (7.4 percent), Houston (6.37 percent), and Dallas (+4.2 percent) also performed better than expected.

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Richard Florida is Senior Editor at The Atlantic and Director of the Martin Prosperity Institute at the University of Toronto. See his most recent writing at The Atlantic Cities. More

Florida is author of The Rise of the Creative Class, Who's Your City?, and The Great Reset. He is founder of the Creative Class Group.

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