Toy Wonders & Blunders

The first American toy was a doll woven from corn husks, popular with young girls in the late 1600s. Two centuries later, the doll was one of this country’s first mass-produced toys. Today, toys are a $22 billion industry in the United States. The average household with children under age 6 spends almost $500 per year on toys. And dolls still reign, with Barbie and Transformers topping the market in sales last year, followed closely by sleeper hit Webkinz.

With big bucks at stake, researchers are keen to understand what will sell and what won’t.

“A lot of people have spent a lot of money trying to figure that out,” says toy historian Tim Walsh. “Of course you’re dealing with the ficklest of all consumers: kids.”

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In the face of this uncertainty, a few rules do stand out:

First, a toy should be challenging. “The best toys invite you to solve a problem and somehow engage your higher sense,” says Scott Eberle, of New York’s Strong National Museum of Play. “Take a yo-yo: it costs $2, but it can take years to learn how to work it.” Thirty-plus years of Rubik’s Cube sales have been built on the deceptively simple toy’s 43 quintillion possible combinations.

Second, advertising matters. “Some things would not have taken off without [it],” says Eberle, citing Etch A Sketch as one of the first toys to launch a modern-day TV ad blitz. “It was a little more expensive, kind of complicated,” he explains. “You had to see it in action.” Today, “mommy bloggers” represent the new advertising model, characterized by peer-to-peer toy recommendations. “These parents were raised on the Internet,” explains Richard Gottlieb of USA Toy Experts, “and they don’t like being told what to do. We need to appeal to this generation differently.”

Lastly, all the TV commercials or effusive tweets in the world won’t make up for a lame idea or bad timing. Toys flop every year for reasons ranging from bad design to ugly packaging. Some simply slink into the obscurity of the bargain bin, explains Gottlieb, where “they die a silent death,” while others live on in kitschy infamy. Vintage toxic Flubber, anyone?