Dispatch June 2008

Not Your Father's Space Program

Who needs NASA when private enterprise is turning the stuff of science fiction into reality?
International Space Development Conference

WASHINGTON, DC - MAY 31, 2008: Greg Olson and Anousheh Ansari speak at this year's International Space Development Conference. (Photo by Nancy Ostertag/NSS)

NASA isn't going anywhere very fast these days, but people in the space enthusiast community aren't as gloomy as you might expect. In fact, they seem more cheerful than I've seen them for years. The reason is that talk about "the space program" (singular) is out of date. Now there are numerous space programs, and while NASA's isn't doing especially well, others seem to be flourishing.

The so-called "space movement" emerged only after NASA's heyday had passed. During the 1960s, when impressive new accomplishments came one after another, those who favored human settlement of outer space were happy just to cheer NASA on. It was only when NASA began to lose momentum following the Apollo program that worried space supporters coalesced into a movement under the umbrella of two organizations: the establishmentarian National Space Institute, founded by Wernher von Braun and Hugh Downs, and the space-hippieish L5 Society, founded by fans of Princeton physicist Gerard K. O'Neill's plan for orbital space colonies. The two groups merged in the 1980s to form the National Space Society, and they've been putting on an annual conference, the International Space Development Conference, for 27 years.

I attended a lot of those conferences back when they were geekfests with an ambience that was half Star Trek convention, half revival meeting. They were fun, and the discussions were often informative, but participants were for the most part on the outside looking in. There was a lot of political discussion, aimed mostly at getting NASA to do the right thing, and at getting Congress to fund NASA to do the right thing, but not a lot of other action.

When my daughter was born in 1995, I quit going for over a decade. I wasn't uninterested, just busy. Recently, though, I attended two conventions—in 2007 and 2008—and discovered that things are different today. From geekfests (not that there's anything wrong with that), the conferences have evolved into something more like the meeting of a professional or trade association. The crowd is better dressed, and often working in the field: one woman I remembered from years back as an activist with Students for the Exploration and Development of Space is now a professor of astronautics at MIT; another former student space activist now coordinates space matters for Google. And truly rich private sector enthusiasts are as conspicuous by their presence now as they were by their absence a decade or two ago.

The main source of excitement at this year's conference was space tourism—folks in the industry prefer the term "personal spaceflight"—involving many companies, from the well-known (Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic) to the sort-of-known (Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin) to the comparatively obscure (XCOR Aerospace). Just this week it was announced that Google co-founder Sergey Brin plans to be a space tourist on a flight to the international space station in 2011. The space tourism business has, according to the results of a study presented at the conference, attracted over 1.2 billion dollars in investment, and grown its revenues from $175 million in 2006 to $268 million in 2007. That's peanuts compared to what NASA is spending on the Space Station or its Constellation project aimed at returning to the Moon, but it's real money and, unlike NASA's budget, it's growing.

Hotel magnate Robert Bigelow is even looking at building his own space station. A (revenue-generating) prototype recently completed its 10,000th orbit around the Earth, and Bigelow has put up $500 million toward making his dream a reality. He'll likely find customers. Indeed, the ISDC featured two wealthy individuals, Greg Olson and Anousheh Ansari, who each ponied up 20 million dollars for a Russian flight to the International Space Station, and both expressed their willingness to pay $100 million for a trip to the Moon if such were available. (Though Olson quipped, "I'd have to sell another company first.")

Presented by

Glenn Harlan Reynolds is the Beauchamp Brogan Distinguished Professor of Law at the University of Tennessee. He runs the blog InstaPundit.com and hosts "InstaVision" on PJTV.com.

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