In the January/February 2008 issue, associate Atlantic editor Megan McArdle takes on the troubling question of what will happen in this country when the looming wave of Boomer retirements hits. We invited McArdle, along with fellow Atlantic editor Clive Crook, and New America fellow and Atlantic contributor Phillip Longman to debate the issue in an e-mail roundtable. Their exchange follows.
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FROM: Phillip Longman
TO: Megan McArdle, Clive Crook
SUBJECT: Megan McArdle's January/February article
DATE: December 13, 2007
This is Phillip Longman. I started writing about the aging of the Baby Boom generation back in 1979 when I was still in my early twenties. Here’s an early sample from the Atlantic . Since then, I’ve tried many times to get away from this dreary subject, but it keeps clawing me back. By now, I’ve written four books and dozens of articles related to the Boomers' prospects in old age and as a senior fellow at the New America Foundation, I’m not free of the subject yet. Soon enough, I’ll be living it.
Sage Stossel, who invited me to start this discussion of Megan McArdle’s article, warned me that it would contain views divergent from my own. I don’t see that. McArdle presents a reasonable scenario, as far as it goes. Quite properly, she emphasizes that health care overwhelms Social Security and all the other challenges exacerbated by the aging of the Baby Boom. Quite properly, she notes how growing hostility to immigrants runs counter to the needs of an aging society. She’s also right in showing how advanced population aging slows down productivity growth. I’m not even offended by the note of optimism at the end. If aging teaches anything, it affirms that truism of Boomer culture: you can’t always get what you want, but you just might find you get what you need.
That said, there are major factors McArdle neglects to consider. The big one is childlessness. According to Census Bureau data, an astounding 19 percent of the women born in the mid-to-late fifties (the demographic epicenter of Baby Boom generation) never had children. This is nearly twice the rate of childlessness that prevailed in the previous generation. Another 17 percent of Boomer women only had one child, compared to 9 percent for women born in the 1930s.
These facts have two important implications for Boomers going forward. One should be obvious. A huge and unprecedented proportion of this generation is going to be on its own in old age. Friends will die off or move away. Spouses will pass. Even the many Boomers who raised typical two-child families, especially if they started late, will find that this investment is not enough to insure that even one child has the wherewithal to offer help or to take an active interest in their lives. High levels of divorce will only add to the hidden mass of socially isolated seniors.
Boomers who have had the experience of seeing their own parents age and die will know what a big deal family is to the elderly. What do you suppose happens to nursing home patients who never receive visitors? What happens to shut-ins? A preview of the future came in 2003, when in rapidly aging France a heat wave caused thousands of shut-in seniors to die alone. This is the scariest part of the age wave for me: thousands of seniors found dead in their homes and apartments every day only after the stink, or a wailing pet dog, alerts society. It’s going to be a phenomenon of American life. The best hope, for those who can afford it, is for new forms of communal assisted living.
Another relationship between fertility and aging is less obvious but also important to the future. Within the Baby Boom generation there was a pronounced disparity in birthrates. Those who remained childless or had just one or two children tended to be well educated, liberal, and secular. By contrast, the roughly 30 percent of Boomers who had three or more children tended be conservative, religious, and less well educated. Members of the later group, though only a minority of their own generation, produced more than 50 percent of the next generation.