Putin's Reign

62% One that is generally negative

“Russians will see his contributions as positive: a wealthier and more stable Russia. Yet relative to what could have been, Putin will have missed the chance to create a more open and competitive state that would have had greater resiliency to serve the interests of Russians and advance Russia’s standing internationally. His legacy will be that of taking advantage of Russia’s energy wealth when prices skyrocketed, and using that wealth to entrench in power a new elite with roots in the KGB.”

“There has been backsliding on the rule of law. Instead of pulling Moscow towards the West he has been pulling it towards the East, towards the ‘Golden Horde.’”

“President Putin has crushed the shallow roots of Russian democracy and exploited a yearning for stability to create a petro-nationalist state which will end up being bad news for the West, Russia’s neighbors and the Russian people themselves”

“Generally negative—the only positive dimension will be stability and predictability, and that is not an unalloyed virtue.”

“Putin may have inherited a mess when he entered office, but he used it to consolidate his own power and that of the presidency at the expense of all other centers of political power - executive, legislative, judicial, and regional - as well as of the media and private interests. He came to power in a country that was slowly becoming democratic and leave power in a country that has reverted to authoritarian rule.”

“[Putin’s leadership is] a return to autocracy.”

“Negative to the west, somewhat less negative in Europe than in the United States.”

“One that is generally negative. The oil boom has enabled Putin to lift Russian spirits. He has not, however, addressed Russia’s fundamental problems. Its population continues to shrink. Corruption and gangsterism are on the rise. Rule of law remains elusive. Political power is personalized rather than institutionalized. The economy has little to offer the world outside of oil and guns. Once oil prices fall--and they will--the Kremlin will no longer be able to hide the country’s ills.”

“Generally negative, but Much depends upon what happens after Putin. If, as I suspect, Russia continues to slide backwards into an authoritarian, syndicalist state with sharp limits on individual freedom of choice and expression then I think that history will see Putin as the facilitator who positioned the levers of power to make this happen.”

38% One that is generally positive

“Despite the backsliding on democracy, Putin will have overseen a major economic recovery, the building of state institutions, and the formulation of a foreign policy that has assertively pursued Russia’s national interests.”

“Putin has given Russia some stability, however [by] returning to authoritarianism. That wasn’t preordained to happen.”

“Putin’s economic legacy will be far better than the chaos that resulted from Yeltsin and gave democracy itself a bad name among ordinary Russians. But as he becomes increasingly authoritarian, apparently eliminating his enemies, his long-term legacy will depend on whether the usual liberalizing forces connected with economic growth can outpace the revived habits of Russian authoritarianism.”

“Positive, but the de-democratization of Russia will punish the next generation and set the conditions for a future mini revolution.”

Several respondents answered the question by saying that Putin’s legacy will be positive to Russia and negative to the West

“[His is a] mixed legacy, some positive some negative—too soon to tell.”  

“One that is generally positive—as seen by Russians, and one that is generally negative —for Europe and the United States.”

“The answer depends on who you are. For Russians I suspect the answer would be generally positive. Putin has restored a measure of internal stability and I suspect the average Russian feels safer than in the period immediately before he came to power and may also feel that Russia’s standing in the world has improved. On the other hand, democracy has certainly not flourished under Putin and from the perspective of Russia’s neighbors Putin’s legacy will, I suspect, be negative.”

“For Russia, positive, for America, negative.”

“Positive for Russia, and negative for other countries (that is, it is not possible to give one answer).”

“He will be seen as positive from Russian but not from a Western point of view.”

“For Russians, it will be positive, for the rest of the world, negative.”

PARTICIPANTS (42): Kenneth Adelman, Graham Allison, Ronald Asmus, Samuel Berger, Max Boot, Stephen Bosworth, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Daniel Byman, Warren Christopher, Wesley Clark, Richard Clarke, Eliot Cohen, William Cohen, Ivo Daalder, Lawrence Eagleburger, Douglas Feith, Jay Garner, Leslie Gelb, Marc Grossman, John Hamre, Gary Hart, Bruce Hoffman, John Hulsman, Robert Hunter, Tony Judt, David Kay, Andrew Krepinevich, Charles Kupchan, John Lehman, James Lindsay, John McLaughlin, William Nash, Joseph Nye, Carlos Pascual, Thomas Pickering, Kenneth Pollack, Joseph Ralston, Susan Rice, Wendy Sherman, Ann-Marie Slaughter, James Steinberg, Anthony Zinni.

Not all participants answered all questions.