A ton of interesting testimony and analysis has come in since then. Here is a sample installment to get going. Probably two more installments to come. The emerging theme is that whatever "really" went on with this now-scrubbed concert tour, it probably wasn't the version trumpeted around the world a week ago, and that I initially believed: namely, that the Chinese authorities had turned down the tour for fear of a Bjork-like embarrassing comment by Dylan. As I mentioned, this is a spillover cost of any kind of censorship policy: when people know you've shut down some kinds of expression, they're willing to believe you've shut down others even when you haven't.
But let's get to the evidence. First, from someone close to the music scene in China right now:
Dylan's people probably had little/ no idea about the real reasons they were being denied access to China. The only thing they are guilty of is accepting a ridiculous offer from BBH [the Taiwan-based tour promoters who were handling the tour] and allowing them to try and sell on/ guarantee the shows in mainland China. This is actually quite common practice (US/ UK agents are happy to take the money and run), but if the wrong partners are chosen, it opens the door for "flipping", which the balance of evidence suggests happened here.Meta-point here: for all of the excitement, joys, and rewards of operating in China these days, "transparency" concerns, from the concert-booking business on up, are a major reality of life for Chinese and foreign firms alike.It's painful to see, but unfortunately probably the future. The withdrawal of Ticketmaster, Livenation and
AEG means there are no recognized/ regulated promoters left here. There will (more than likely) be a lot more of this in the future.
Next, with more on-scene info, reader Luke Mitchell:
I live in Shanghai and heard / read about this saga a few weeks ago.
Then, a couple of weeks ago I met the people who run one of Shanghai's music promoters. As a Dylan fan, I asked them about what was happening. They weren't involved directly but obviously knew people and had heard things, and their direct account squared with what I'd seen elsewhere. To wit: a Taiwanese promoter landed the rights for Dylan's Asian shows, at a reputed cost of about RMB 250,000 per show. They then prematurely announced a slew of tour dates, including on the mainland, presumably to drum up publicity. They then shopped the rights for the mainland shows around - but hiked the price to RMB 400,000 per show (just appearance fee). Not only is that just an outrageous margin for the Taiwanese promoter, it kills the economics of the show - you'd have to sell 2,000 tickets at RMB 300 and up just to break even. So every mainland promoter turned it down.