An American attack on Iran could be disastrous. I'm not nearly so optimistic about its chances as is Matthew Kroenig, the Council on Foreign Relations nuclear expert whose recent, much-discussed, article in Foreign Affairs calls on the U.S. to attack Iran's nuclear sites. I'll look at the Kroenig piece later in some detail, but suffice it to say, as I write in my Bloomberg View column this week, that advocates of an attack on Iran today would be exchanging a theoretical nightmare -- an Iran with nukes -- for an actual nightmare, a potentially out-of-control conventional war raging across the Middle East that could cost the lives of thousands Iranians, Israelis, Gulf Arabs and even American servicemen. Now that sanctions seem to be biting -- in other words, now that Iran's leaders understand the President's seriousness on the issue -- the Iranians just might be willing to pay more attention to proposals about an alternative course. I recognize all the difficulties inherent in reaching out again to an Iranian leadership uninterested in American friendship. But the stakes are high enough to warrant another attempt.
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