You may say I'm a dreamer, but I think it's important for the Obama Administration, despite the obvious electoral difficulties this might pose, to try one more time to reach out to the Iranian leadership in order to avoid a military confrontation over Tehran's nuclear program. Yes, the chances are slim that Iran would respond positively to the Administration's request for an unfettered dialogue that could lead to a) the end of Iran's diplomatic and economic isolation, and b) the end of Iran's nuclear program (or at least its military component).
An American attack on Iran could be disastrous. I'm not nearly so optimistic about its chances as is Matthew Kroenig, the Council on Foreign Relations nuclear expert whose recent, much-discussed, article in Foreign Affairs calls on the U.S. to attack Iran's nuclear sites. I'll look at the Kroenig piece later in some detail, but suffice it to say, as I write in my Bloomberg View column this week, that advocates of an attack on Iran today would be exchanging a theoretical nightmare -- an Iran with nukes -- for an actual nightmare, a potentially out-of-control conventional war raging across the Middle East that could cost the lives of thousands Iranians, Israelis, Gulf Arabs and even American servicemen. Now that sanctions seem to be biting -- in other words, now that Iran's leaders understand the President's seriousness on the issue -- the Iranians just might be willing to pay more attention to proposals about an alternative course. I recognize all the difficulties inherent in reaching out again to an Iranian leadership uninterested in American friendship. But the stakes are high enough to warrant another attempt.
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