Iran Has a Presidential Selection, Not an Election

It's too early to feel optimistic that the regime will reform itself.
Iran elex kh banner.jpg
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei departs after casting his ballot in the parliamentary election in Tehran on March 2, 2012. (Caren Firouz/Reuters)

"Some people may, for whatever reason, not desire to support the regime of the Islamic Republic, but they certainly want to support their country," said Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in a June 12 address. In his historic speech, the powerful figure who came to power by undemocratic means in 1989 urged the public to cast its vote for a new Iranian president as a sign of defiance to the West.

"Enthusiastic and hopeful presence of the people [at the ballots] will disappoint the enemy. When the enemy is disappointed, it will lose efficacy," he said. "When the enemy is hopeful, it will increase its pressure, but when the enemy loses its hope, it will pursue a different path..."

The election may indicate changes in the interfactional balance of power within the regime, but there will be no change in substance.

Khamenei's remarks are without precedent in the Islamic Republic: He acknowledged for the first time that there is a domestic opposition to his rule. The Supreme Leader also implicitly recognizes that the opposition, contrary to the regime's own propaganda, is composed of Iranian patriots, and not "counterrevolutionaries," "velvet revolutionaries," "lackeys of global arrogance and world imperialism," or "foreign agents." Khamenei's choice of the word "country" too is remarkable: He no longer urges the public to vote as an expression of their commitment to Shia Islam, but he appeals to their sense of Iranian nationalism.

Khamenei's speech reflects the great dilemma he is facing at this year's election. On the one hand, Khamenei desires a high voter turnout since he perceives all elections as the public's renewal of allegiance to himself, and not necessarily the public's endorsement of a specific candidate. On the other hand, he fears repetition of the unrest, which erupted in the wake of the fraudulent June 9, 2009 presidential election. The regime seeks to prevent millions of angry Iranians from pouring onto the streets in protest of his despotic rule and mismanagement of an economy that is groaning under the weight of corruption, mismanagement, and international sanctions.

The regime's formula for the 2013 election is to restrict the public's enthusiasm, but preserve some hope.

Controversial candidates such as former president Ayatollah Ali-Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaei, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's protégé, were barred from candidacy, and what remained was a choice between regime loyalists. Following the withdrawal of regime loyalists Gholam-Ali Haddad Adel and Mohammad-Reza Aref from the campaign, Iranian voters can now choose between Hojjat al-Eslam Hassan Rouhani, the sole clerical candidate, Ali-Akbar Velayati, a pediatrician and longest-serving foreign minister of the Islamic Republic, and four former officers of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) - Mohsen Rezaei, Saeed Jalili, Mohammad-Baqer Qalibaf, and Mohammad Gharazi.

While similarities between the candidates have dampened public enthusiasm, the choices are a deliberate gambit to buttress the regime. The competition between Qalibaf and Jalili is designed to mobilize regime supporters, while Rouhani's candidacy is meant to offer the opposition a faint hope of the government's ability to reform itself.

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Mark Dubowitz is executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, where he leads the foundation’s Iran projects on sanctions, human rights, and nonproliferation.

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