An Alternative Timeline of the Gaza Escalation

For years, Hamas had been cooperating with Iran and Sudan to improve its ability to strike deep inside Israel.

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Israeli soldiers guard munitions found on the M/V Francop, on November 4, 2009. (Amir Cohen/Reuters)

The series of rocket attacks, tentative ceasefires, and political intrigues leading up to the latest Israeli escalation in Gaza has been closely scrutinized since the IDF launched Operation Pillar of Cloud against Hamas, the U.S. and EU-listed terrorist organization that currently rules the Gaza Strip. Yet this week's events, which culminated in a ceasefire announced on Wednesday afternoon, occur within a longer and perhaps more significant timeline. Hamas has proven determined to acquire long-range weapons from Iran ever since the last major Israeli operation in Gaza, and thanks to a combination of Sudanese cooperation and Egyptian intransigence, they have done just that. Hamas has not only obtained Iranian-build Fajr-5s, long-range missiles that can strike up to 50 miles inside of Israeli territory. In what could be described as a significant psychological victory, Hamas has turned a rocket attack on Israel's largest city from a worrying hypothetical to a reality that Israeli military and political planners have no choice but to contend with.

The Fajr-5s became a concern almost as soon as the last major Israeli operation in Gaza ended in early 2009. Two-thousand nine and 2010 were fairly quiet years along the southern border: according to the Jerusalem Post, there were 596 rocket attacks on Israel in 2009, and only 150 in 2010. But a series of Wikileaks cables provides a somewhat different sense of Hamas's activities during their superficially more-docile post-conflict years.

Operation Cast Lead ended in January of 2009. By November, 2009, an Israeli general had told American officials that long-range Iranian weapons had likely made their way to the Gaza Strip since the campaign ended. "General Baidatz articulated Israel's concern by highlighting recent intelligence that HAMAS is trying to acquire from Iran (and potentially test-fired the previous weekend) the 60 km-range Fajr-5 rocket that could reach Tel Aviv."

Just as troubling was the Israeli interdiction of the M/V Francop in November of 2009, a cargo ship containing nearly 11,000 rockets and mortar rounds--some of them stored in crates stamped with the logo of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quods Force. According to Wikileaks, the ship actually picked up cargo in Egypt before it was seized by Israeli Naval personnel and redirected to the port of Ashdod, indication of both the extent of the Iranian smuggling network's reach across North Africa, and Egyptian passivity towards weapons trafficking.

In a cable from later that month, IDF Deputy Chief of Staff Dan Harel said that Field Marshal Mohamad Tantawi, who would become the leader of Egypt for the 18 months after the uprising that ousted Hosni Mubarak, was being less than cooperative in curtailing Hamas weapons smuggling along the country's border with Sudan. According to Michael Ross, a former Israeli intelligence agent and a one-time liaison officer between Mossad and the CIA, official Egyptian complacency towards weapons smuggling along the country's porous desert border continues. "The Egyptian [intelligence service] has been very cooperative in trying to stem the flow of weapons from Iran-Sudan-Egypt-Gaza, but the Egyptian military seems indifferent to interdicting these shipments," he told me. "Ironically, if the will was there, it could be done quite easily."

In the same cable where he offered a mixed assessment of Egypt's anti-trafficking efforts, Harel shared some worrying information regarding ongoing upgrades to Hamas's arsenal: "Harel said that Israel has sensitive intelligence that Iran is constructing an additional HAMAS-specific missile, based on the Fajr, that will have a range beyond 40 kilometers."

In late 2009, Yaakov Katz of the Jerusalem Post reported that the IDF's Home Front Command was basically taking a future Hamas rocket attack on Tel Aviv for granted, even if it was unsure of exactly which model of imported missile the group had in its possession. "The IDF believes that Hamas has obtained Iranian-made Fajr missiles, either the Fajr 3 or Fajr 5," Katz reported. "The Fajr 5...has a range of up to 75 km, which could reach Tel Aviv, as well as communities further up the coast. Intelligence assessments are that Hamas smuggled the missiles into the Gaza Strip through tunnels, possibly as separate components."

Arieh Herzog, the former director of the Israel Defense Ministry's Homa Missile Defense Agency, told me that the threat of an attack on the country's largest metro area was "not very new" for Israeli planners, even before the inflow of long-range weapons to Hams. "Hezbollah in Lebanon does have long-range and even much longer-range rockets than the Fajr-5," he said. "Definitely they were expected to hit the Tel Aviv area one day by rocket."

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Armin Rosen is a former writer and producer for The Atlantic's Global channel.

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