The Chen Guangcheng case could have been a disaster, but both countries proved how dedicated they are to working together, says Elizabeth C. Economy.
- The Evolution and Future of U.S.-Mexico Relations
- The Eurozone's Austerity-Growth Debate
- U.S. Policy Options Toward Myanmar (Audio)
- Pakistan on the Brink: A Conversation with Ahmed Rashid (Audio)
Two developments signal a positive shift in U.S.-China relations--progress in last week's high-level talks in Beijing, and the two sides' efforts to cobble an agreement that would allow dissident Chen Guangcheng to leave China for the United States, says Elizabeth C. Economy, who directs Asia studies at the the Council on Foreign Relations. "Both sides are clearly committed to maintaining stability in the relationship and were very unwilling to allow this one striking and important incident to cause the relationship to spiral downward," says Economy. The two sides announced modest economic accords, including an agreement that foreign banks would be allowed a higher stake in Chinese banks, and an agreement to cut import tariffs on some consumer goods. "In the context of the Chen Guangcheng situation," says Economy, "the fact that they were able to announce anything positive is a real compliment to both sides."
Do you think China will let this Chen deal go through?
This deal is a significant accomplishment on the part of China and the United States. I certainly hope Beijing will follow through on it. It wouldn't seem to be in China's interest to block the deal at this point; the international outcry would be significant. Frankly, getting Chen out of China likely has its benefits for Beijing: It gets him off the radar screen in China--particularly on the Internet, where his case was followed with some interest--and minimizes the likelihood that he could cause trouble while he was studying law someplace in China, which was promised in the first deal.
Of course, there is always the possibility that Beijing will renege on the deal based on something Chen says or does--or something someone in the United States says or does--but the greater risk is that Beijing won't let him back into the country when and if he wants to return.
The English-language Chinese press has been attacking the United States for interference, but I guess this is normal.
Yes. This is par for the course. At this point, the Chinese leadership in Beijing needs to accomplish a couple of different objectives. On the one hand, they are eager to reach accommodation; they are eager to see the Chen Guangcheng situation resolved fully and to move past it. But by the same token, they don't want an avalanche of Chinese political activists or dissidents descending on the U.S. embassy and trying either to seek asylum or put pressure on Beijing to arrive at some new kind of accommodation for them. They want to send a clear message to the Chinese people that the Chen deal represented a unique case that included some poor behavior on the part of the United States, and that no one should expect that this kind of deal will be repeated.
This incident was particularly dramatic because at the same time, Secretary of State Clinton and Treasury Secretary Geithner were both in Beijing for the U.S.-Chinese talks on security and economics. What is the overall state of U.S.-Chinese relations now?
In many respects, this was a fairly astonishing set of discussions that these two countries managed to have in the midst of this emerging crisis surrounding Chen Guangcheng. The fact that Beijing and Washington were able not only to conduct the two days of discussions but also to arrive at some concrete agreements was a sign that there may be an emerging maturity in the relationship. Both sides are clearly committed to maintaining stability in the relationship and were very unwilling to allow this one striking and important incident to cause the relationship to spiral downward, or to cause a real deterioration in the relationship. So perhaps ironically, in some respects, this strategic and economic dialogue demonstrated as positive a state in the relationship as we've seen in a while.
What specifics were worked out?
The only specific achievements that have been noted were on the economic side. It doesn't seem as though there were real advances on the political and security side, although surrounding the dialogue there was the announcement that China had agreed to sanction three additional North Korean companies--but this was out of a list of forty the UN had proposed, and not really an outcome of the strategic and economic dialogue.
But on the finance and economics side, Beijing seemed to make some progress on issues important to the United States, agreeing, for example, that foreign banks could take a larger stake in Chinese banks, from a 33 percent stake to 49 percent stake--that's significant for U.S. financial institutions. They've also indicated that they are going to consider cutting import tariffs on a number of consumer goods, which might allow the United States to export more.