The Two-State Solution on Its Deathbed

Peter Beinart's book The Crisis of Zionism has started debates about various things, including whether it's too late for a two-state solution. Beinart's view is that it's not quite too late but is so close to that as to warrant drastic measures--like a boycott of products made in West Bank settlements (or "Zionist BDS," as distinguished from full-on BDS).

My view is if anything more pessimistic. But apparently I should cheer up: After I last expressed that pessimism, fellow Atlantic contributor Zvika Krieger explained that it rests on confusion.

Krieger's view is worth exploring, because it's a particularly well-informed version of a very common liberal Zionist view. If he's wrong, and the two-state solution is in fact close to death, that means lots of liberal Zionists need to rethink things. Specifically, they need to either (1) embrace Beinart's boycott idea; (2) come up with some alternative way of jump-starting progress toward a two-state solution; or (3) reconcile themselves to the end of liberal Zionism (since pretty much everyone now agrees that the only long-run alternative to a two-state solution is a one-state solution, and for demographic reasons that one state won't be both Jewish and democratic).

Krieger's critique focuses on this quote from my piece: "There are just too many settlements, interconnected by too many roads that restrict the movement of too many Palestinians, for a two-state deal to result in anything Palestinians could proudly call a 'state.'"

Krieger agrees with me that a two-state solution would require uprooting the vast majority of the West Bank's settlements--but, he notes, this doesn't mean uprooting the vast majority of settlers. Since most of the settlers live in big settlement blocks fairly close to the 1967 "green line," Israel could keep just 2 or 3 or 4 percent of the West Bank (and give Palestine compensatory chunks of Israel proper), and thus leave around 75 percent of the settlers where they are.

OK, fine. But, according to Krieger's numbers, this would still involve uprooting 125,000 settlers! If anyone considers this a readily doable project, I recommend going to Hebron, where fewer than one percent of those 125,000 live, and asking the settlers whether they'd go peacefully. Compounding their assured intransigence is that the Israeli army, which would be doing the extracting, is itself increasingly populated by intensely religious settlement supporters, some of whom say they won't carry out settler-eviction orders.

All of this helps explain why last week at the J-Street Conference, the Israeli scholar Menachem Klein, who was an adviser to the Barak government, opined that a two-state deal could spark a civil war within Israel. "Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated during an interim agreement when he had not evacuated a single settlement," he said. "Israelis will use arms to resist an agreement even if there were a referendum supporting it."

But this is almost beside the point. Warning how hard it would be to uproot the settlements is like warning how hard it would be for the American government to confiscate the TV sets of all citizens. No government is going to try to do it anyway!

Look, the several two-state plans Krieger summarizes are very laudable, but could we get back to the real world and take a look at actual Israeli politics? The current government seems determined to avoid even embarking on negotiations with the Palestinians and meanwhile is (like past governments) increasing the number of settlers, thus not only creating more "facts on the ground" but expanding Israel's already formidable pro-settlement constituency.

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Robert Wright is the author of The Evolution of God and a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize. He is a former senior editor at The Atlantic.

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