Nate Silver Wins Again—Plus, Doha's Shafallah Forum

Doha Grand Hyatt.JPG

View of my balcony at the Grand Hyatt, Doha

Good morning to those of you heading to bed on the news that Newt Gingrich dominated the South Carolina GOP primaries.  I don't have much to add to the pundit commentary on Newt's return -- other than that take a look at the forecasting success yet again of 538's Nate Silver. 

I've been a junkie for his electoral commentary for quite a while -- but every time he drops numbers before something happens, it's eery to see that he just about nails it every time. 

Here is what Silver published on his New York Times blog before today's primary:

538 Nate Silver SC Predictions.jpgSouce: FiveThirtyEight, New York Times

As I wake up this morning in Doha, Qatar -- and yes, that's a picture off of my balcony at the Grand Hyatt this morning -- it looks like Nate Silver's estimates on Gingrich's 39% share and Romney's 29% take are dead on.  Ron Paul seems to have come in last -- just behind Rick Santorum, but Silver's models still predicted well their general market share of the primary.

For those in Doha today, I'm here with Bob Woodruff, Cherie Blair, Sheikha Moza, Valerie Amos, and many others for the Shafallah Forum on Crisis, Conflict and Disability.  I'll be moderating a session this afternoon on the challenges those who are disabled face during natural disasters.  Bob Woodruff is moderating the session on disability issues in military conflicts.  Luckily, I have an excellent set of panelists who have thought deeply about what might be done to even out the chances for those who are disabled during either man-made or natural shocks.

I don't see a spot on the website for live-streaming.  Come on Doha!!  But if there is a video, I'll try to get it posted later.

Here are some interesting data points and references I plan to raise during my opening remarks.  First, a reference to Europe's 2003 heat wave that killed more than 50,000 people -- the majority of whom were elderly and/or disabled. A flashback to Katrina's deadly impact on the disabled.  And a look at what some NGO groups, like Prepare Now, are doing to encourage those with disabilities and constraints to plan ahead.

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Steve Clemons is Washington editor at large for The Atlantic and editor of Atlantic Live. He writes frequently about politics and foreign affairs. More

Clemons is a senior fellow and the founder of the American Strategy Program at the New America Foundation, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C., where he previously served as executive vice president. He writes and speaks frequently about the D.C. political scene, foreign policy, and national security issues, as well as domestic and global economic-policy challenges.

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