Do Israeli Leaders Really Think Iran Is an Existential Threat?

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This Sunday's New York Times Magazine will feature a big piece, already available online, by the Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman called "Will Israel Attack Iran?" The first paragraph sets a dramatic scene featuring Israel's defense minister, Ehud Barak. As Sabbath eve approached two weeks ago, and Barak "gazed out at the lights of Tel Aviv," he said to Bergman, "This is not about some abstract concept, but a genuine concern. The Iranians are, after all, a nation whose leaders have set themselves a strategic goal of wiping Israel off the map."

Actually, the Iranians aren't a nation whose leaders have set themselves that "strategic goal." They are a nation with a crackpot president who (a) isn't the country's supreme leader and doesn't have the power to order an attack on Israel; (b) did say "the occupying regime must be wiped off the map" (or "vanish from the page of time"--the translation is disputed); but (c) later said he was referring to eliminating the Zionist form of government, not the people living under it; and (d) said the way to achieve this was to give Palestinians the vote--and that if they opted for a two-state solution rather than a single non-Zionist state, that would be fine, too; (e) also said that Iran would never initiate military hostilities with Israel.

In sum, whatever you think about President Ahmadinejad (and I think he's pretty horrible), or about what he said or about the sincerity of his subsequent qualifications of what he said, for Barak to say Iran's "strategic goal" is Israel's annihilation is a bit misleading.

But let's leave aside the facts of the case. Could Barak really think that, even if Iranian leaders had said they would launch a first strike, they'd actually do such a thing? To believe that, you would have to believe that the Iranian regime is literally suicidal, since Israel's nuclear retaliatory capacity is very robust (not to mention the fact that the event wouldn't exactly go unnoticed by America). Does Barak really believe the Iranian leadership is crazy?

Here's something he said in 2010 that didn't make it into the Times Magazine piece: "I don't think the Iranians, even if they got the bomb, (would) drop it in the neighborhood. They fully understand what might follow. They are radical but not totally crazy. They have a quite sophisticated decision-making process, and they understand reality."

It's enough to make you think that maybe as Barak "gazed out at the lights of Tel Aviv" he was thinking to himself, "Hmmm, this guy says he's writing a story for a major American media outlet. Maybe if I sound sufficiently terrified, he'll report that Israel is determined to launch a military strike before too long, thus scaring America into either ratcheting up sanctions to even higher levels or going ahead and bombing Iran."

Of course, maybe Barak didn't think that. But if he did, then Ronen Bergman has made him a very happy man. The piece's final paragraph begins, "After speaking with many senior Israeli leaders and chiefs of the military and the intelligence, I have come to believe that Israel will indeed strike Iran in 2012. Perhaps in the small and ever-diminishing window that is left, the United States will choose to intervene after all..."

Barak isn't as alarmist as some. He concedes in the Times Magazine piece that "Iran has other reasons for developing nuclear bombs, apart from its desire to destroy Israel." For example: "An Iranian bomb would ensure the survival of the current regime, which otherwise would not make it to its 40th anniversary in light of the admiration that the young generation in Iran has displayed for the West." Got that? Two of the reasons the Iranian regime wants the bomb are (1) to launch an attack that would be literally suicidal; and (2) to ensure its survival. (No wonder Israelis think the Iranians are crazy!)

Notwithstanding my doubts about Barak's agenda, Bergman's piece is well worth reading--richer and more nuanced than my selective summary might suggest. Meanwhile, if you want another view of what Israeli government officials are thinking, Trita Parsi, who just published a book called A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iran, has this appraisal:

[Edit note, 1/27 8:30 a.m. EST: In the 6th paragraph I changed "ratcheting up sanctions to regime-change levels" to "ratcheting up sanctions to even higher levels."]

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Robert Wright is the author of, most recently, the New York Times bestseller The Evolution of God and a finalist for the Pulitzer Prize. He is a former writer and editor at The Atlantic. More

Wright is also a fellow at the New America Foundation and editor in chief of Bloggingheads.tv. His other books include Nonzero, which was named a New York Times Book Review Notable Book in 2000 and included on Fortune magazine's list of the top 75 business books of all-time. Wright's best-selling book The Moral Animal was selected as one of the ten best books of 1994 by The New York Times Book Review.Wright has contributed to The Atlantic for more than 20 years. He has also contributed to a number of the country's other leading magazines and newspapers, including: The New Yorker, The New York Times Magazine, Foreign Policy, The New Republic, Time, and Slate, and the op-ed pages of The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Financial Times. He is the recipient of a National Magazine Award for Essay and Criticism and his books have been translated into more than a dozen languages.

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