Some officials fear Syrian President Bashar al-Assad could use the weapons against protesters. What happens if he does?
A pro-Assad demonstrator hangs by a crane in Damascus / AP
WASHINGTON--The United States is quietly but closely monitoring the status of Syria's large chemical-weapons stockpile amid fears that the regime of autocratic ruler Bashar al-Assad could use the warfare agents to quell continued political protests or divert the materials to extremist groups that operate in the region.
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U.S. government officials declined to discuss specifics of the monitoring operation or what intelligence resources were involved, citing the need to maintain secrecy about operational tactics. They acknowledged, though, that there is a great deal of concern in Washington over Syria's chemical arsenal.
"It is extremely important that we maintain visibility on Syria's chemical weapons and it is something that we as an intelligence community" are actively involved in doing, a U.S. intelligence official told Global Security Newswire.
A joint U.S.-Israeli surveillance campaign in Syria was first reported by The Wall Street Journal in late August. Since that time, "it hasn't diminished in importance at all," according to another U.S. official.
Both officials spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivities surrounding the intelligence operation.
The United States is believed to have prepared contingency plans for dealing with Syria's toxic arsenal should it appear that the regime is about to use the weapons or pass them to affiliated extremist organizations such as Hezbollah.
Syria is not a member of the Chemical Weapons Convention. It has also never publicly declared to the international community its chemical arsenal, which is understood to comprise hundreds of tons of nerve and blister agents, its doctrine for using such weapons or their exact capabilities. Still, Syria's status as a chemical-weapons possessor is widely accepted as fact.
The Middle Eastern state is not known to have ever used those materials, which date back to the 1970s, according to information compiled by the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Most analysts believe that Damascus developed them as a deterrent to outside attack, namely from Israel, and not for use against ithe Syrian people.
The Assad regime, though, has earned a reputation for brutality toward its own people. More than 4,000 Syrians have been killed in the political uprising that began this past spring, according to the United Nations. The rising body count has U.S. officials and analysts worried that if the Syrian leadership feels besieged and without other options, it could revise its calculus on the use of chemical weapons against Syrian army defectors and protesters.
In the event that the violence escalates into a full-blown civil war, opposition forces would likely try to gain control of the regime's chemical-weapon sites. A civil war would also likely increase the prospects of Assad's ordering the use of his chemical armaments, according to Leonard Spector, deputy director of the James Martin Center.
"We are aware of the situation in Syria and continue to follow the events as they unfold," a Pentagon spokeswoman, Lt. Col. April Cunningham, said in a prepared statement. "The potential use of chemical weapons by any state poses a security threat to international security."
The chemical-weapons surveillance campaign in Syria is not the only such effort that the United States has been involved with this year. When Libyan civilians rose up in February against dictator Muammar el-Qaddafi's decades-long rule, U.S. intelligence and defense officials used a variety of assets to keep tabs on the nation's small stockpile of declared mustard-blister agent.
The United States worked with NATO and Libyan opposition forces to establish a team of specialists that watched over Libya's known chemical-weapon facilities to deter government forces from seeking to use or divert chemical-warfare materials, according to an Agence France-Presse report. Undeclared sites have also been identified as the Qaddafi regime was ousted.
The State Department also said that t used "national technical means" to monitor Libya's chemical sites. National technical means are typically understood to encompass reconnaissance aircraft and satellites.
Obama administration officials would not disclose whether such technology is also being used to monitor Syria's chemical-weapon sites, on the grounds that revealing such details could jeopardize the integrity of the operation. Unlike in Libya, NATO and the United States have no internationally sanctioned mandate for military operations in Syria, nor do they have the relationships with Syrian opposition groups similar to those established with the Libyan rebels.