President Nazarbayev's reelection campaign was as much spectacle as sham
Headmistress Medeuova speaks to visitors as she points to a portrait of Kazakh President Nazarbayev at a school museum in his native village of Ushkonyr. By Shamil Zhumatov/Reuters
On Sunday, Nursultan Nazarbayev won reelection as president of Kazakhstan, a nation he has ruled since it was a republic of the Soviet Union, with 95.5 percent of the vote against an undistinguished field of three no-name opponents. One challenger, on his Facebook page, listed the incumbent president as a "Person Who Inspires Him"; another said he voted for Nazarbayev.
It may sound like a typical post-Soviet sham election, but it's not quite. Most autocrats, post-Soviet and otherwise, just quietly go through the motions of elections, trying to draw as little attention to them as possible. Not Nazarbayev. Three days before the vote, he published an op-ed in the Washington Post titled "Kazakhstan's steady progress toward democracy." He sent an adviser on a tour of Western capitals to promote the election; in Washington, the adviser -- modestly, it turns out -- predicted Nazarbayev would win between 80 and 92 percent of the vote.
Foreign election observers found evidence of ballot box stuffing and apparent multiple votes, charges that the government quickly denied. "I believe that it is the most ideal election ever in the history of all the elections," said one presidential adviser, Yermukhamet Yertysbayev.
It's not clear why Nazarbayev felt he had to resort to ballot stuffing. He is, in fact, genuinely popular in the country -- a U.S.-run poll last year found that he had a 91 percent approval rating. That's due partly to Nazarbayev's successful stewardship of the economy, but also because he has so systematically sidelined any potential opposition so that no credible alternative to him exists.
Contrary to Nazarbayev's claims of "steady progress" toward democracy, most outside observers have seen only decline. The democracy-promotion group Freedom House, which scores countries based on their political and civic freedoms, ranks Kazakhstan as "not free" with a score that has slowly dropped in the 20 years since independence. According to the most recent report, "Nazarbayev and his Nur Otan party maintained almost complete control over the political sphere ... using tactics including arbitrary arrests, restrictive new laws, and politically motivated prosecutions to muzzle critical media outlets and individuals."
And yet, Nazarbayev and his government went through great efforts to make this election look like a step forward on the road to democracy. Presidential elections hadn't been scheduled until 2012, but in December, a citizen's group initiated a petition calling for the elections to be put off and for Nazarbayev to govern unopposed until 2020. The fact that the petition reportedly gained 5.5 million signatures -- 60 percent of the country's electorate - in a matter of days suggested the effort was more Astroturf than grassroots. And when Nazarbayev made a show of rejecting the suggestion, and instead announced that Kazakhstan would move up the presidential elections, it confirmed in many observers' eyes that the whole proceeding was a clumsy charade, intended to make it look as if Nazarbayev was reluctant to rule as unopposed as he does.
Kazakhstan, despite its unfortunate association with Borat, is in fact a success story in many ways. Its neighbors in post-Soviet Central Asia are either on the verge of becoming failed states (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) or among the planet's most brutal dictatorships (Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan). Kazakhstan, meanwhile, has used its substantial oil and natural gas wealth to build a successful economy with a sizable middle class that can afford sushi and beach vacations in Turkey.