Robert Kagan, in arguing for something I hope will happen -- a strong statement from the Obama Administration in support of democratic change in Iran -- makes the following observation:
It would be similarly tragic if Israel damaged the likelihood of political change by carrying out an airstrike against Iran's nuclear facilities in the coming year. That would provide a huge boost to the Tehran regime just when it is on the ropes -- and for what? The uncertain prospect of setting back the nuclear program for a couple of years?
Israeli analysts I've spoken to tend to believe the opposite -- that a strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would destabilize the regime. But this is probably wishful thinking.