Garance Franke-Ruta

National Security Adviser Tom Donilon called on Iran to allow Iranians the same freedom to protest that Egyptians have had. "By announcing that they will not allow opposition protests, the Iranian government has declared illegal for Iranians what it claimed was noble for Egyptians," Donilon said in a statement issued by the White House Saturday. "We call on the government of Iran to allow the Iranian people the universal right to peacefully assemble, demonstrate and communicate that's being exercised in Cairo."

There are candidates who are seeking to become the GOP's 2012 heartthrob. Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels is the guy they never thought about dating who nonetheless may be able to talk them into it. One thing was clear at the Conservative Political Action Conference's Ronald Reagan Centennial Dinner Friday night, where the short, balding former George W. Bush budget director and possible 2012 presidential contender gave the keynote address: Daniels is a natural. He spoke like a smart man talking self-confidently to an audience he respected, with none of the stagey hand gestures and theatrical tics of most politicians. He argued with what he knew to be his audience's expectations, seeking to prod and move their thinking. And, most critically, Daniels clearly got that we remain in a cultural moment where the viciousness of our public discourse is exceeded only by our longing to rise above it. "Purity in martyrdom is for suicide bombers," he told the assembled at CPAC. "We must be the vanguard of recovery, but we cannot do it alone," he said. "We have learned in Indiana, big change requires big majorities. We will need people who never tune in to Rush or Glenn or Laura or Sean. Who surf past C-SPAN to get to SportsCenter. Who, if they'd ever heard of CPAC, would assume it was a cruise ship accessory." He took on those in Congress who have made a religion of their crusade against earmarks for tilting at budgetary windmills. "Lost to history is the fact that, in my OMB assignment, I was the first loud critic of Congressional earmarks. I was also the first to get absolutely nowhere in reducing them: first to rail and first to fail," he said. "They are a pernicious practice and should be stopped. But, in the cause of national solvency, they are a trifle. Talking much more about them, or 'waste, fraud, and abuse,' trivializes what needs to be done, and misleads our fellow citizens to believe that easy answers are available to us." He warned that our national debt is a threat to our security, and that even the defense budget ought to come in for scrutiny. "Nothing, not even the first and most important mission of government, our national defense, can get a free pass," he said. "I served in two administrations that practiced and validated the policy of peace through strength. It has served America and the world with irrefutable success. But if our nation goes over a financial Niagara, we won't have much strength and, eventually, we won't have peace. We are currently borrowing the entire defense budget from foreign investors. Within a few years, we will be spending more on interest payments than on national security. That is not, as our military friends say, a 'robust strategy.'" He called not for tax cuts alone -- no tired talk of the "death tax" for him -- but for growth that lifts the middle class. "We must display a heart for every American, and a special passion for those still on the first rung of life's ladder. Upward mobility from the bottom is the crux of the American promise, and the stagnation of the middle class is in fact becoming a problem, on any fair reading of the facts," he said. "Our main task is not to see that people of great wealth add to it, but that those without much money have a greater chance to earn some." And he warned against making opposition to government an end in itself, while nonetheless seeking to diminish its centrality. "We should distinguish carefully skepticism about Big Government from contempt for all government. After all, it is a new government we hope to form, a government we will ask our fellow citizens to trust to make huge changes." In short, while he delivered some red meat and zingers -- calling debt the new "Red Menace" -- he cast himself as a politician attuned to our post-Tucson shooting times. "I urge a ... thoughtfulness about the rhetoric we deploy in the great debate ahead," he said. "I suspect everyone here regrets and laments the sad, crude coarsening of our popular culture. It has a counterpart in the venomous, petty, often ad hominem political discourse of the day. "When one of us -- I confess sometimes it was yours truly -- got a little hotheaded, President Reagan would admonish us, 'Remember, we have no enemies, only opponents.' Good advice, then and now." Whether he decides to run or not, he's got the most interesting and freshest message of the potential GOP contenders. If he doesn't run, it's one the other contenders would do well to steal.

If there has been a single event that has laid bare the bizarre quality of contemporary journalism more than the Conservative Political Action Conference, I've yet to attend it. More even than the Republican National Committee's Winter Meeting, where Chairman Michael Steele lost his reelection bid and several rows of reporters dressed in near identical garb dutifully tweeted out seven rounds of vote totals, CPAC has made plain the dynamics what I've come to think of "replicant journalism," where the crush of reporters competing to rapidly and electronically disseminate even the smallest thimbleful of information outstrips any general interest in the information at hand, and also makes each reporter the starting point in a great chain of replication, as their words are variously retweeted, shared, blockquoted, linked or uploaded along down the long tail of the nicheified online media world. Sit too close to the starting point of the great chain of replication, though, and it can be dizzying. "Thanks to Twitter, I'm thoroughly confused abt #Egypt - but I have 17-source confirmation of Newt's CPAC theme song," tweeted National Journal reporter Jim Tankersley Thursday. 2012, in short, is going to be a total zoo. The presidential primary contest may be starting later than usual -- the same day CPAC started, Obama supporters celebrated the four-year anniversary of his Springfield, Ill., presidential announcement -- but the sort of one-car caravan that Walter Shapiro wrote about in his 2003 book on the once actually invisible invisible primary no longer seems remotely imaginable. I guess it was a vanishing world even then. Into the maw of this new media machine came the possible GOP contenders, holding themselves back from its fierce scrutiny by refusing to formally declare their intentions while nonetheless parading before an audience of thousands at CPAC. If Thursday's sessions gave voice to the big personalities -- Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, New Gingrich and Donald Trump -- Friday was all about the more traditional political men, with their more traditional meins. Sen. John Thune, a tall trim man whose face seems to have started falling in on itself since winning a senate seat from South Dakota just six years ago, gave a series of unremarkable remarks that caused many to wonder if he's really got it in his heart to run for the presidency. He was "coming to the final stages" of a decision on a bid, he told reporters before his appearance, which he opened with a joke about his low public profile. "It's fair to say I don't have the same national name recognition as some of my Republican colleagues," said Thune. "I've never had a book signing. I've been to Iowa many times, but only on my way to South Dakota. The closest I've ever been on a reality show is C-SPAN's coverage of the Senate Floor. " His speech seemed calculated to do little to raise that profile. Ron Paul, the long-time Texas congressman, gave a fiery speech again laying out his by now well-known isolationist, anti-government political philosophy. He was treated as a rock star by the hordes of young libertarians at the conference, some pierced about the nose and lip, their presence amplified by the absence of the traditional values groups who chose to boycott the conference over its inclusion of small gay conservative group GOProud. But even the fervor Paul generated in 2008 was not enough to help him win the Iowa caucuses, at once the easiest organizing win for an outsider candidate (see: Huckabee, Mike), and one of the hardest for all comers. His troops are loud, they are good at being an overwhelming presence at conferences, they are colorful and mediagenic, they cheer and boo, they push stories about Paul far higher in the daily online traffic reports than one might expect. But as Trump noted Thursday, they will not be enough to win him a presidency -- or a presidential nomination. So that left, for the afternoon session, former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty to trot out what sounded like test-runs of likely arguments for likely 2012 bids. Romney used the opportunity to blast Obama, though of course he also has been doing that for a while. Obama's message to America was "it could be worse," Romney charged, quipping, to applause and laughter, "What's next, let them eat cake? Excuse me, let them eat organic cake?" "How difficult is it to take office in the middle of a raging economic crisis and realize the economy should be your number one priority?" asked Romney. Laced in with his criticisms of Obama for failing to focus on the economy -- an argument Romney also made in his National Press Club appearance last March -- was a newer message of optimism that's also Romney's latest sticker (really, you can tell what the theme of any campaign is by the stickers, and this is the one his Free and Strong America PAC was handing out in the conference exhibitors hall): "Believe in America." "I refuse to believe America is just another place on the map with a flag. We are an exceptional land," he said at one point. "Believe in America. Our freedom depends on it," he concluded his remarks. His biggest applause line also seemed plug for the paperback version of his most recent book. "I will not and I will never apologize for America!'' said the author of 2010's "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness." To sync with the new message, it's been retitled "No Apology: Believe in America." "Let me be clear, if I decide to run for president, it wouldn't take me two years to wake up to the economic crisis," said Romney. Just so there was no question about his ambitions, "I, for one, would like to see him lead the country as president," noted wife Ann Romney introducing him. A grandmother of 16, she looked smashing in a short-sleeved dress and beads that seemed to echo Michelle Obama's fashion choices -- a change from the rich older lady suits she was partial to in the last cycle. Pawlenty, for his part, seemed to betting that we have not seen the last of the trouble in Egypt, and that the internal dynamics of Egyptian society are such that should it have free and fair elections before America next does, America -- or rather, GOP caucus and early primary state voting Americans -- will not much like the outcome. His reddest meat was reserved for the foreign policy arena. "Mr. President, bullies respect strength," he said, "they don't respect weakness. So when the United States of America projects its national security interests here and around the world, we need to do it with strength. We need to make sure that there is no equivocation, no uncertainty, no daylight between us and our allies around the world." Obama, whom Pawlenty compared to former president Jimmy Carter, was appeasing those who would do America harm, he said. "We undermine Israel, the U.K., Poland, Czech Republic, Colombia, amongst other of our friends. Meanwhile, we appease Iran, Russia, and adversaries in the Middle East, including Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood," he charged. "Mr. President, with bullies, might makes right. Strength makes them submit. We need to get tough on our enemies -- not on our friends. And, Mr. President, stop apologizing for our country," he said. As with Romney, that was a major applause line, though Pawlenty's book is titled "Courage to Stand: An American Story." "The bullies, terrorists and tyrants of the world have lots to apologize for. America does not," he said.

President Obama addressed Americans and Egyptian alike Friday afternoon, praising the dedicated protesters of Tahrir Square whose 18-day uprising ousted President Hosni Mubarak and pledging that America would continue to be a friend to Egypt as it transitions to a new form of government. "There are very few moments in our lives where we have the privilege to witness history taking place," the president said. "This is one of those moments." His full remarks follow:

Good afternoon, everybody. There are very few moments in our lives where we have the privilege to witness history taking place. This is one of those moments. This is one of those times. The people of Egypt have spoken, their voices have been heard, and Egypt will never be the same. By stepping down, President Mubarak responded to the Egyptian people's hunger for change. But this is not the end of Egypt's transition. It's a beginning. I'm sure there will be difficult days ahead, and many questions remain unanswered. But I am confident that the people of Egypt can find the answers, and do so peacefully, constructively, and in the spirit of unity that has defined these last few weeks. For Egyptians have made it clear that nothing less than genuine democracy will carry the day. The military has served patriotically and responsibly as a caretaker to the state, and will now have to ensure a transition that is credible in the eyes of the Egyptian people. That means protecting the rights of Egypt's citizens, lifting the emergency law, revising the constitution and other laws to make this change irreversible, and laying out a clear path to elections that are fair and free. Above all, this transition must bring all of Egypt's voices to the table. For the spirit of peaceful protest and perseverance that the Egyptian people have shown can serve as a powerful wind at the back of this change. The United States will continue to be a friend and partner to Egypt. We stand ready to provide whatever assistance is necessary -- and asked for -- to pursue a credible transition to a democracy. I'm also confident that the same ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit that the young people of Egypt have shown in recent days can be harnessed to create new opportunity -- jobs and businesses that allow the extraordinary potential of this generation to take flight. And I know that a democratic Egypt can advance its role of responsible leadership not only in the region but around the world. Egypt has played a pivotal role in human history for over 6,000 years. But over the last few weeks, the wheel of history turned at a blinding pace as the Egyptian people demanded their universal rights. We saw mothers and fathers carrying their children on their shoulders to show them what true freedom might look like. We saw a young Egyptian say, "For the first time in my life, I really count. My voice is heard. Even though I'm only one person, this is the way real democracy works." We saw protesters chant "Selmiyya, selmiyya" -- "We are peaceful" -- again and again. We saw a military that would not fire bullets at the people they were sworn to protect. And we saw doctors and nurses rushing into the streets to care for those who were wounded, volunteers checking protesters to ensure that they were unarmed. We saw people of faith praying together and chanting - "Muslims, Christians, We are one." And though we know that the strains between faiths still divide too many in this world and no single event will close that chasm immediately, these scenes remind us that we need not be defined by our differences. We can be defined by the common humanity that we share. And above all, we saw a new generation emerge -- a generation that uses their own creativity and talent and technology to call for a government that represented their hopes and not their fears; a government that is responsive to their boundless aspirations. One Egyptian put it simply: Most people have discovered in the last few days...that they are worth something, and this cannot be taken away from them anymore, ever. This is the power of human dignity, and it can never be denied. Egyptians have inspired us, and they've done so by putting the lie to the idea that justice is best gained through violence. For in Egypt, it was the moral force of nonviolence -- not terrorism, not mindless killing -- but nonviolence, moral force that bent the arc of history toward justice once more. And while the sights and sounds that we heard were entirely Egyptian, we can't help but hear the echoes of history -- echoes from Germans tearing down a wall, Indonesian students taking to the streets, Gandhi leading his people down the path of justice. As Martin Luther King said in celebrating the birth of a new nation in Ghana while trying to perfect his own, "There is something in the soul that cries out for freedom." Those were the cries that came from Tahrir Square, and the entire world has taken note. Today belongs to the people of Egypt, and the American people are moved by these scenes in Cairo and across Egypt because of who we are as a people and the kind of world that we want our children to grow up in. The word Tahrir means liberation. It is a word that speaks to that something in our souls that cries out for freedom. And forevermore it will remind us of the Egyptian people -- of what they did, of the things that they stood for, and how they changed their country, and in doing so changed the world. Thank you.

Thumbnail image credit: White House

President Obama issued his firmest statement yet last night about the crisis in Egypt, calling on President Mubarak to move toward "irreversible" and "immediate, meaningful" reforms. "The Egyptian government must put forward a credible, concrete and unequivocal path toward genuine democracy, and they have not yet seized that opportunity," he said. Obama also called for the lifting of the Emergency Law that has governed Egyptian society since 1981. "The Egyptian people have made it clear that there is no going back to the way things were," he said. His full statement is below.

The Egyptian people have been told that there was a transition of authority, but it is not yet clear that this transition is immediate, meaningful or sufficient. Too many Egyptians remain unconvinced that the government is serious about a genuine transition to democracy, and it is the responsibility of the government to speak clearly to the Egyptian people and the world. The Egyptian government must put forward a credible, concrete and unequivocal path toward genuine democracy, and they have not yet seized that opportunity. As we have said from the beginning of this unrest, the future of Egypt will be determined by the Egyptian people. But the United States has also been clear that we stand for a set of core principles. We believe that the universal rights of the Egyptian people must be respected, and their aspirations must be met. We believe that this transition must immediately demonstrate irreversible political change, and a negotiated path to democracy. To that end, we believe that the emergency law should be lifted. We believe that meaningful negotiations with the broad opposition and Egyptian civil society should address the key questions confronting Egypt's future: protecting the fundamental rights of all citizens; revising the Constitution and other laws to demonstrate irreversible change; and jointly developing a clear roadmap to elections that are free and fair. We therefore urge the Egyptian government to move swiftly to explain the changes that have been made, and to spell out in clear and unambiguous language the step by step process that will lead to democracy and the representative government that the Egyptian people seek. Going forward, it will be essential that the universal rights of the Egyptian people be respected. There must be restraint by all parties. Violence must be forsaken. It is imperative that the government not respond to the aspirations of their people with repression or brutality. The voices of the Egyptian people must be heard. The Egyptian people have made it clear that there is no going back to the way things were: Egypt has changed, and its future is in the hands of the people. Those who have exercised their right to peaceful assembly represent the greatness of the Egyptian people, and are broadly representative of Egyptian society. We have seen young and old, rich and poor, Muslim and Christian join together, and earn the respect of the world through their non-violent calls for change. In that effort, young people have been at the forefront, and a new generation has emerged. They have made it clear that Egypt must reflect their hopes, fulfill their highest aspirations, and tap their boundless potential. In these difficult times, I know that the Egyptian people will persevere, and they must know that they will continue to have a friend in the United States of America.

Thumbnail image credit: White House

CPAC's new openness to gays and lesbians this year drew one unexpected attendee to the annual conservative confab: Lt. Dan Choi, the anti-"Don't Ask, Don't Tell" activist who was famously arrested protesting the ban on gays serving openly in the military. Now, having spent the past year tangling with the Obama administration -- and won -- he's exploring his political leanings and finding that while his homosexuality may have made him an outsider, his military service gives him a lot in common with more conservative folk. "All I know is I was born gay and I can choose what political party I'm party of," he told me when I bumped into him in the CPAC exhibitor's hall. "Gay people are angry with Obama," he observed. "I didn't come to this last year because I thought it would be too controversial," he said. "So I decided to come this year-- when it's even more controversial." Realistically, though, it was that very GOProud controversy over the role of gays at the conference that drew him to it. If conservatives were going to be open to gays coming to the gathering, he figured he should give them a shot, too. And some of the booths were started to rub off on him, he said. "I am leaning libertarian," he observed. "I think gun control is using both hands and opening your eyes." Attending the conference has been "surprising," he said. "It's fun."

Donald Trump made the usual egotists of political sphere look like pikers Thursday in an electrifying speech before the Conservative Political Action Conference that drew cheers, boos, hoots and applause -- and saw the man know on TV as "The Donald" proclaim himself a holder of conservative values and a potential 2012 presidential contender. "While I am not at this time a candidate for the presidency, I will decide by June," the wealthy New York businessman said, declaring himself fed up with the way America has become "a whipping post for the world." "They are not treating us properly," he said. "The United States is becoming a laughing stock of the world... I deal with people from China. I deal with people from Mexico. They cannot believe what they are getting away with," he said. Trump said he'd have some hesitation about running, as a successful businessman who has made many enemies along the way. But he also said that such hesitations on the part of other was what had led the U.S. to have the weak leadership it has today. "People who have been in wars leave themselves open to criticism by the many they have beaten," he said, adding later: "Most very successful people don't want to be scrutinized or abused." And Trump laid claim to the mantle of conservatism. "I am pro-life. Against gun control... I will fight to end Obamacare and replace it with something that makes sense to people in business and not bankrupt the country. If I decide to run, I will not be raising taxes. We will be taking in hundreds of billions of dollars from other countries that are screwing us ... and we'll rebuild our country so that we can be proud. Our country will be great again," he said. Trump also couldn't resist the opportunity to tweak some of the people in the audience. "By the way, Ron Paul cannot get elected. I'm sorry," he said,to a mix of cheers and boos. "Honestly, he has just zero chance of getting elected." Thumbnail image credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Having first brought controversy to the Conservative Political Action Conference, the gay conservative group GOProud has tried to smooth things over by falling back on two things gay groups of all sorts are known for: connections to celebrities and the ability to throw one hell of a party. "You're probably familiar with some of the controversy and we really wanted to bring value to CPAC and to make this CPAC the best CPAC ever," said Jimmy LaSalvia, executive director of GOProud. Instead of just being known as a cause of conflict, the group wanted its presence to add something everyone at the conference could agree was a good thing. So they reached out to Donald Trump with an invitation to speak at the conference -- an invitation the New York real estate magnate and television personality accepted Wednesday. "As soon as people heard he was coming, that became the buzz," LaSalvia said, "and that was great." "He's certainly a powerful voice on economic issues and his voice should be heard here," he added. "It's exciting." Trump is reportedly considering a bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Also exciting to many attendees was the prospect of Thursday night's GOProud party at 18th Street Lounge with Big Government publisher Andrew Breitbart, featuring '90s alt rock performer Sophie B. Hawkins. More than 500 guests are expected at the event, according to organizers. Breitbart, a Los Angeles conservative, reached out to GOProud about throwing the party for them as a way of welcoming gays and lesbians to the conservative conference. "This party will highlight the story the main stream media has missed in the weeks leading up to CPAC, namely that the vast majority of the conservative movement is united and welcomes GOProud and any other conservative into the fold," said Breitbart, who also recently joined GOProud's Advisory Council, annoucing the event in early February. Other co-sponsors include Paul E. Singer, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Poker Players Alliance, the Institute for Liberty, and Bank of Kev Productions.

Updated 1:10 p.m. After entering the auditorium at the Marriott Wardman Park like a returning hero -- thanks, in no small part, to the blasting beat of the 1982 Rocky III comeback song, "Eye of the Tiger" -- former House speaker New Gingrich delivered a well-received red-meat lecture to the assembled at CPAC. His major applause line involved rebuking Time magazine's recent cover story comparing Obama and Reagan. "Barack Obama is no Ronald Reagan," Gingrich declared. One thing to note: it may be his theme song, but "Eye of the Tiger" is music from the deep past for many of those attending the conference, which draws thousands of college students. Those born the year the song was released turn 29 this year. Thumbnail image credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Updated 12:25 p.m. White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told reporters traveling with the president en route to Marquette, Mich., "We're watching a very fluid situation" on the ground in Egypt. Conflicting reports Thursday morning said that Egyptian President Honsi Mubarak would announce later today that he is stepping down; that he is not stepping down; that the Egyptian military would assume control of the state; and that recently appointed Vice President Omar Suleiman would assume formal control. "I received reports that possibly Mubarak might do that," CIA Director Leon Panetta said of reports of Mubarak's imminent departure. "We are continuing to monitor the situation. We have not gotten specific word that he will in fact do that." Asked about the reports, Obama told a journalist traveling with him in Michigan, "We're going to have to wait and see what's going on." For updates, see also from National Journal: "Live Blog: Mubarak to Step Down Tonight, Reports Say."

Jonathan Gruber, a professor of health economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the man behind many of the ideas central to the health-care overhauls overseen by former Mass. governor Mitt Romney and President Obama, will be drafting a graphic novel to defend the Obama law, The Boston Herald reported this week. "I'm going to use the facts to tell the story," Gruber told the Herald. "I'm the narrator guiding the reader through the law. It'll have lots of pictures and text." The Atlantic's Alex Hoyt imagines how a scene from the comic could look: The book, tentatively titled "Health Care Reform: What It Is, Why It's Necessary, How it Works," is expected to be published in the fall by the Hill and Wang division of Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Image credit: Alex Hoyt, using Brushes on the iPad

As the Conservative Political Action Conference begins, the first day's major speakers include members of Congress, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, and the group of potential 2012 presidential candidates who can generously be described as long-shots. Kicking things off was Michele Bachmann, the flame-haired (at least today) Minnesota Republican and tea party leader, who warned the assembled students and older conservatives that the U.S. tax code would be taking 75 percent of their income during their peak earning years. She further warned that the president would be making the nation more like Spain, with a 22 percent unemployment rate and a socialist government. Also speaking today will be former House speaker Newt Gingrich, former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum, and New York businessman and television personality Donald Trump.

Updated 6:24 p.m. Married Rep. Chris Lee resigned Wednesday afternoon three hours after the publication of allegations in Gawker that he sent flirtatious photos -- including one where he was naked from the waist up -- to a Washington-area woman he contacted through the Craigslist personals section. "It has been a tremendous honor to serve the people of Western New York. I regret the harm that my actions have caused my family, my staff and my constituents. I deeply and sincerely apologize to them all. I have made profound mistakes and I promise to work as hard as I can to seek their forgiveness," Lee said in a statement. "The challenges we face in Western New York and across the country are too serious for me to allow this distraction to continue, and so I am announcing that I have resigned my seat in Congress effective immediately." He earlier declined to comment on the story, telling Fox News Wednesday afternoon, "I have to work this out with my wife." Lee, a Republican who represented the Western New York district adjacent to that of disgraced former congressman Eric Massa, was in his second term in the House. He was known for his work as Vice Chairman of the House Dairy Farmers Caucus and earlier this year sponsored a bill to stop the mandatory printing of congressional documents. Roll Call reported last year he was one of the 50 richest members of Congress. Lee initially told Gawker he was the victim of a computer hack. The full story can be read at Gawker. Photo credit: AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin (L) / Gawker (R) Thumbnail image credit: Wikimedia Commons

Why handling the conflagration in Egypt will be tricky for the president at home, as well as abroad As the uprising in Egypt moves into its second week, President Obama faces a moment of political peril as he seeks to support pro-democracy protestors and regime change without appearing to turn their fight into a U.S.-backed coup against a longtime ally, potentially undermining the legitimacy of whatever government succeeds that of President Hosni Mubarak and destabilizing relations with other U.S. allies. As fire-bombs and gunshots flew in Cairo's Tahrir Square Wednesday, White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs condemned the violence as "outrageous" and reiterated U.S. calls for calm, saying, "The United States deplores and condemns the violence that is taking place in Egypt, and we are deeply concerned about attacks on the media and peaceful demonstrators. We repeat our strong call for restraint." And while GOP leaders gave support to the president's handling of the intensifying conflict in Egypt over the weekend, Republican and conservative critiques of his course of action are nonetheless emerging. They fall along three main lines, though there are already so many subthreads of criticism that the entire waterfront of potential outcomes in Egypt is covered. This means -- and this is the real domestic political risk for the president -- that critics will be able coalesce at some future date around an argument based on facts on the ground for pretty much any eventuality other than the best-case scenario: a non-violent and prompt transition to a freely and fairly elected government not dominated in parliament or elsewhere by the Muslim Brotherhood or Mubarak cronies. Here are the main lines of criticism: Obama is Jimmy Carter This analytic framework for understanding Obama's presidency has been kicking around for a while, and doesn't just come from Republicans. (See Richard Cohen on "Obama's Carter problem" from last October.) But the question Walter Russell Mead asked on Fox.com in early January -- "Is Obama the New Carter?" -- has returned with fresh force now that he faces a political crisis in the Middle East with seeming parallels to the Iranian revolution of 1979. The Washington Times laid out the argument bluntly on Jan. 30: "As Egypt's regime totters on the verge of collapse, President Obama is looking less like Ronald Reagan and more like the Gipper's predecessor, Jimmy Carter. The turmoil in Egypt is markedly similar to the revolution that gripped Iran 33 years ago. Egypt may be to Mr. Obama what Iran was to Mr. Carter." Rush Limbaugh also took this approach, saying that Obama is repeating Carter's mistakes in his handling of the crisis in Egypt. This argument seems most likely to take hold if the turmoil in Egypt leads to either of two outcomes: 1) uprising/revolution followed by a democratically-elected government dominated by Islamists or 2) a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy forces by the lame duck Mubarak government, followed by rapidly-conducted elections marred by fraud that elevate one of his cronies into power and change little (except opinion on the Arab street about America). Obama lost Egypt by failing to maintain Bush's democracy agenda "I think the White House abandoned the democracy agenda because it was the Bush agenda," former senator Norm Coleman (R-Minn.) told ABC's Top Line Tuesday. "Had the White House been working more closely with the forces in Egypt, understanding that Mubarak could not continue on forever, that there had to be an alternative, an answer somewhere down the road, we might have been in a better position." Elliott Abrams made a subset of this argument in The Washington Post Sunday in the piece, "Egypt protests show George W. Bush was right about freedom in the Arab world." "All these developments seem to come as a surprise to the Obama administration, which dismissed Bush's 'freedom agenda' as overly ideological and meant essentially to defend the invasion of Iraq. But as Bush's support for the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon and for a democratic Palestinian state showed, he was defending self-government, not the use of force," Abrams wrote. "The revolt in Tunisia, the gigantic wave of demonstrations in Egypt and the more recent marches in Yemen all make clear that Bush had it right - and that the Obama administration's abandonment of this mind-set is nothing short of a tragedy." Jeff Jacoby echoed the critique in the Boston Globe Wednesday, writing, "If US foreign policy in recent years had consistently reflected Bush's freedom agenda' -- if prodding the Arab world toward a democratic renaissance had become an unmistakable American priority -- Egypt might already have made the transition to a moderate, humane, post-Mubarak government. But the freedom agenda didn't survive." Of course, Bush also gave diminished support to his democracy agenda after the 2005 elections in Egypt, bitterly disappointing pro-democracy forces who were much weaker and more vulnerable at the time (as Jacoby notes). But that won't stop people from pursuing the line of criticism that Obama simply waited to long and was too accommodating to Mubarak, regardless of what happens in the months ahead -- and especially Mubarak is able to hang on to power. Obama is handing Egypt over to the Islamists This argument will only gain traction if free and fair elections are held in Egypt that bring the Muslim Brotherhood, currently banned from openly standing for election, to power. Proponents include Daniel Pipes, who accused Obama of "myopically siding with the Islamists against Mubarak," former House speaker Newt Gingrich, and former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty. "The president went to Cairo and gave his famous speech in which he explained that we should all be friends together because we're all the same people doing the same things and there are no differences between us," Gingrich said on "The Sean Hannity Radio Show" on Monday. "Well, I think there are a lot of differences between the Muslim Brotherhood and the rest of us." Egypt could go the way of Iran, he warned, where revolution gave way to theocracy. Pawlenty took a similar tack, saying the the emergence of an Islamic regime in Egypt is "a great concern," should a power vacuum develop. "Obviously we're at a precipice now where there's going to be change, and the infrastructure -- the political infrastructure of the country -- isn't well-prepared for the change and so it opens the door to mischief and manipulation and other options that are not democratic, that are not fair, not free. And it's in part because we allowed this vacuum to materialize underneath Mubarak," he told reporters in Des Moines Monday. *** If Mubarak is able to crack down on the Egyptian opposition sufficiently to stick to his present plan to step down in September, that means that there will be five Republican presidential primary debates before he hands over power -- debates at which would-be GOP leaders will hash out which of these lines of criticism they support. Republican presidential candidate Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) consistently outpolled Barack Obama on questions of national security and foreign policy in 2008, just as George W. Bush outpolled Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) on such matters in 2004. Obama won election because of his unprecedented campaign, record-breaking fundraising, compelling narrative -- and because 2008 was an economy election, not a foreign policy one. One of the major challenges Democrats faced in 2010, according to party strategists, was their inability to break through with an economic message that resonated and reach low-information voters with facts about what was in the health-care bill. Continued instability in Egypt and other Middle Eastern nations -- especially if it leads to increased oil and gas prices at home -- could contribute not only to a negative economic picture but threaten to transform the upcoming 2012 election from one fought on the economy to one fought, once again, on the foreign policy terrain that has proved so tricky for Democrats in years past. Photo credit: John Moore / Getty Images Thumbnail photo credit: Getty Images