A spoiler for those of you who watch the annual Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest for something other than the grotesque spectacle: Joey Chestnut is going to win. It will not be a close contest.
This is a foregone conclusion. Chestnut has won the last six such events handily, and will cruise to his seventh. The Washington Generals have a better chance of beating the Harlem Globetrotters than any of the second-tier also-rans that will try to take down Chestnut; for an event that gets live coverage on ESPN, there's surprisingly little drama.
It doesn't have to be this way, of course. There is one other man who can go head-to-head with Chestnut. However, Japan's Takeru Kobayashi—a six-time winner himself, who unofficially set the hot dog record in 2011 until judges corrected the count—will be a no-show for the fourth straight year. In a profession that encourages (gastrointestinal) flexibility, however, Kobayashi is one part of a stubborn standoff where both he and league organizers end up worse off than if they cooperated.
It's not that Kobayashi doesn't want to compete—he was arrested in 2010 after crashing the competition stage. Rather, it's that his contract dispute with Major League Eating, the sanctioning body of the "sport," prevents him from participating.
The terms of the dispute are simple. Competitive eating does not pay particularly well—only the absolute top-tier eaters bring in enough money from competition that they do not need supplemental income. Thus, eaters leverage their limited celebrity into endorsement deals and sponsorships the same way that LeBron James and Kobe Bryant earn money well beyond their player contracts.
Major League Eating, however, wants a cut of any endorsement or sponsorship one of its competitors signs. For Kobayashi, this was too much to ask.
Both sides of the dispute have merit. It's not unfair for Kobayashi to feel like he deserves to keep what he earns in sponsorship money, because he is unquestionably the only male eater other than Chestnut that commands any interest as an individual. The chart below is from Google Trends, mapping the search interest in Kobayashi, Chestnut, and the next two best hot dog eaters, Patrick Bertoletti and Tim Janus.
Two things should jump out immediately from this chart:
Kobayashi and Chestnut blow away their competition. Tim Janus and Patrick Bertoletti may be talented eaters, but they command virtually zero interest on their own.
The July 4 hot dog eating contest blows away its competition. While eaters compete in other events year-round, the Nathan's event commands more interest than all other events combined. People like to call the event the Super Bowl of competitive eating (though, given the disparity in audience, it's closer to the World Cup of competitive eating—while every other event is a children's soccer league).
Without question, Major League Eating would greatly benefit by bringing Kobayashi back into the fold. What leverage does it have on Kobayashi, then?