As the oral argument in the same-sex marriage cases nears, the smart money remains on a 5-4 decision upholding the right of individuals to be married in their own states and to have those marriages recognized by other states.
In fact, under the surface, a lot of the briefing seems to be less about whether the Court will affirm marriage equality and more about how. If history is a guide, the Court will speak in oblique, even oracular terms. A strong, clear opinion would serve the nation better.
Whatever the Court decides, religious and social conservatives plainly still hope to blunt the gay-rights movement. The Alabama Supreme Court has already ordered same-sex marriages halted, despite a federal court decision that the state’s ban is unconstitutional. A committee of the Texas House of Representatives recently approved a ban on state funds being used to perform same-sex marriages, court order or no. Legislatures in Texas, Alabama and Michigan considering “conscience clause” bills that would allow state-funded adoption and foster-care agencies to refuse same-sex couples who seek to adopt or foster.