Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel should win college football's highest award Saturday because has had the most chances to succeed—and he's delivered on them.
From the time the Heisman Trophy was created in 1935 until today, the only criteria ruling it has been that it should go to "the outstanding college football player in the United States."
Okay, that leaves out Canada. But beyond that, the definition of "outstanding" is pretty much left to the voters' discretion. "The most valuable" or even "the best" would have given them at least a tiny bit more to go on. Merriam-Webster defines "outstanding" as "standing out from a group." Does that help even a little?
It helps me. Among the thousands of offensive and defensive linemen who play college football, there is one who stands out this year: Texas A&M quarterback Johnny Manziel, who also happens to be the odds-on favorite.
Sorry to take the suspense out of it, but that's probably the way this year's Heisman voting is going to go and certainly the way it should. Kansas State quarterback Collin Klein and Notre Dame linebacker Manti Teʻo are in the discussion, but although they are outstanding players, with Manziel in contention neither can be called the outstanding one.
Anyone who has followed the college football season has read by now that Manziel has passed for 3,419 yards with 24 touchdowns and has run for 1,181 yards and 19 more touchdowns. Despite these eye-popping numbers, some are making the case for Klein, who has indeed been terrific, passing for 2490 yards with 15 TDs and running for 890 yards and 22 TDs.
But how to compare them? Did Manziel throw the ball more often than Klein, or was he actually better? And who was the better runner? Let's look at some of what I call "quality numbers."
Start with their rushing stats. Klein didn't really run for 890 yards; that number doesn't include the yardage lost when he was sacked. It's an absurd affectation of college statisticians to subtract sack yards from a QB's rushing total—the pros more sensibly subtract sack yardage from the team's yards gained passing—so I'm going to ignore that 890 and award Klein 109 more yards for a total of 999, which give him a healthy average of 5.5 yards per run. Manziel was even better. Johnny Football—get used to the nickname because you're going to be hearing it for the next couple of years—actually ran for 1342 yards for a spectacular 8.3 yards/run.
Now, the passing stats. Klein topped Manziel in one critical number, averaging 9.15 yards/throw to Johnny's 8.55. But Manziel beats Klein in the second-most important passing stat: He threw just eight interceptions in 400 pass attempts to Klein's 7 picks in 272 tries. If you regard touchdown-to-interception ratio as important, and many do, then Manziel wins easily, 24 TDs to eight interceptions while Klein was 15 to seven.
It's not necessarily relevant which player gained the most yards, but it's very important who they gained those yards against. In truth, neither quarterback played against a schedule of particularly tough opponents, but Texas A&M beats out Kansas State in one key category: opponents who ranked high in total defense. Manziel faced seven teams ranked in the top 70 toughest defenses (ordered by fewest yards allowed) while Klein was up against just three. I can't see any real argument for Collin Klein in any of these numbers.