Predicting the 2012 Election Results Based Solely on Political Movies

This could become a different race if Paul Ryan busts a move to "Canned Heat" sometime today.

banner_head of state.jpg
DreamWorks

If you've been paying attention to the political pundit class lately, you know there's been a weird backlash in some sectors against Nate Silver, the math whiz behind the FiveThirtyEight blog, who has since early summer been predicting a better than 60-percent probability of an Obama win. (He currently has Obama's chances of reelection at 90 percent.) Over the past couple of weeks, many Republican observers have insisted that Mr. Silver is biased, that his model is skewed, that his projection of a big Obama win runs contrary to their impression that the race is a "toss-up."

Here's a sop to the anti-Silverites. Let's throw out all that complicated averaging and math and science, and instead predict the outcome of the election based on something everyone can grasp: movies. Political elections have been a popular film topic for years, so I decided to take a look at what these fictional elections could tell us about how things are going to go today. Pick one of the eight films below at random, and voila, the election results shall be known.

This post also appears on Flavorpill, an Atlantic partner site.

Presented by

Jason Bailey is the film editor at Flavorwire. He is the author of The Ultimate Woody Allen Film Companion.

Ballpoint Pen Art: An Experimental Animation

"The film is a cycle of twenty drawings. The same paper is filmed, pages one through twenty, over and over again."

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register with Disqus.

Please note that The Atlantic's account system is separate from our commenting system. To log in or register with The Atlantic, use the Sign In button at the top of every page.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

The Absurd Psychology of Restaurant Menus

Would people eat healthier if celery was called "cool celery?"

Video

This Japanese Inn Has Been Open For 1,300 Years

It's one of the oldest family businesses in the world.

Video

What Happens Inside a Dying Mind?

Science cannot fully explain near-death experiences.

Video

Is Minneapolis the Best City in America?

No other place mixes affordability, opportunity, and wealth so well.

More in Entertainment

Just In