Predicting the 2012 Election Results Based Solely on Political Movies

This could become a different race if Paul Ryan busts a move to "Canned Heat" sometime today.

banner_head of state.jpg
DreamWorks

If you've been paying attention to the political pundit class lately, you know there's been a weird backlash in some sectors against Nate Silver, the math whiz behind the FiveThirtyEight blog, who has since early summer been predicting a better than 60-percent probability of an Obama win. (He currently has Obama's chances of reelection at 90 percent.) Over the past couple of weeks, many Republican observers have insisted that Mr. Silver is biased, that his model is skewed, that his projection of a big Obama win runs contrary to their impression that the race is a "toss-up."

Here's a sop to the anti-Silverites. Let's throw out all that complicated averaging and math and science, and instead predict the outcome of the election based on something everyone can grasp: movies. Political elections have been a popular film topic for years, so I decided to take a look at what these fictional elections could tell us about how things are going to go today. Pick one of the eight films below at random, and voila, the election results shall be known.

This post also appears on Flavorpill, an Atlantic partner site.

Presented by

Jason Bailey is the film editor at Flavorwire. He is the author of The Ultimate Woody Allen Film Companion.

What Happened to the Milky Way?

Light pollution has taken away our ability to see the stars. Can we still save the night sky?

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register with Disqus.

Please note that The Atlantic's account system is separate from our commenting system. To log in or register with The Atlantic, use the Sign In button at the top of every page.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

What Happened to the Milky Way?

Light pollution has taken away our ability to see the stars. Can we still save the night sky?

Video

The Faces of #BlackLivesMatter

Scenes from a recent protest in New York City

Video

Desegregated, Yet Unequal

A short documentary about the legacy of Boston busing

Video

Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Life

The Supreme Court justice talks gender equality and marriage.

Video

Social Media: The Video Game

What if the validation of your peers could "level up" your life?

Video

The Pentagon's $1.5 Trillion Mistake

The F-35 fighter jet was supposed to do everything. Instead, it can barely do anything.

More in Entertainment

Just In