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Atlantic Unbound | Archive
William Schneider ..... Recent articles by William Schneider: The Poverty CandidatesJohn Edwards made poverty an issue in his 2004 campaign for the White House. This time around, he has company: Barack Obama is also working to put poverty back on the political agenda. Democratic SlugfestAn exchange of blows between Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama was bound to happen. The Bush CourtPresident Bush has made good on his pledge to move the Supreme Court to the right. As a result, the Court could be more of an issue in the 2008 presidential race than it was in 2004. Platinum PoliticsThis is an anti-establishment year, which is helping Barack Obama and hurting John McCain. Of Church and StateReligion now looms larger than economic class as a source of political division. United Against BushIn three competitive swing states, Muslim-American voters could make a difference. The Papa Bear FactorEven though he's a former senator, Fred Thompson is positioned to run against Washington. Clear as MudThe collapse of the Senate immigration bill makes the 2008 GOP presidential race even muddier. Framing the DebateDemocrats and Republicans are framing the Supreme Court abortion ruling in very different ways. Violating the 11th CommandmentRepublican presidential candidates haven't hesitated to speak ill of their fellow hopefuls. Hardening Their PositionsThe legislative process pushes the parties together. The presidential campaign pulls them apart. Intensely Anti-WarIraq doesn't sound like a kitchen-table issue, but it's what voters are most worried about. 44 Million StrongThe rise in Hispanic voters can help Democrats—unless an anti-immigrant backlash kicks in. Bush's Firing SquadCongressional Republicans will start clamoring for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales to go if they feel the U.S. attorney controversy has become politically threatening to them. Voter's RemorseBill Clinton's popularity has gone up as George W. Bush's has gone down. Of Dollars and DiscontentFirst-quarter fundraising totals have opened up the presidential races in both parties. Triangulating Times?Bill Clinton triangulated on welfare reform. Can George W. Bush do the same on immigration? Hollywood Hedges Its BetsWith some Democrats wondering whether either Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama can be elected president, the 2008 primaries are likely to produce a lot of strategic voting. Outsiders in the Fast LaneBarack Obama and Rudy Guiliani are the rock stars of the 2008 race. Turning Up the HeatDemocrats are facing intense pressure to cut off funding for the Iraq war immediately. Irking New HampshireChanges in the presidential primary calendar will make New Hampshire more important than ever. Betting on Private MoneyThe current presidential campaign finance system is likely about to collapse and die. The Middle-Class BluesDemocrats are picking up signs of middle-class anxiety about economic trends. Don't BlinkThe presidential nomination fights could be over by early February 2008. Race to the RightThe three leading Republican presidential contenders are all moving to the right. A Message About PrioritiesOpinion polls show that Americans have one big priority; resolving the situation in Iraq. Laying Down a MarkerNancy Pelosi has taken over in a more polarized environment than Newt Gingrich faced in 1994. The Confidence GapPresident Bush has not succeeded in changing people's minds about Iraq. The 2008 CrowdOpinion polls could play an unusually big role in the selection of the presidential nominees. The Price of PatienceWhen Americans feel bogged down in a war; they want to win or get out. One Tough DemocratFor decades, Democrats have been stereotyped as wimpy liberals. But Jim Webb, Virginia's new Democratic senator, is nobody's idea of a liberal. And his confrontational style is anything but wimpy. Clinton, Obama, and the Third WayClinton's excessive baggage and Barack's light load of experience might not be the only options for Democrats. Immigration: Election Issue Fade-OutNeither party holds a clear advantage on the issue. Swing TimeIndependents have always been around, but for the past 12 years they've split their votes pretty evenly between the two parties. This year, they swung. The independent vote went 57 percent to Democrats and 39 percent to Republicans—the biggest margin since the first exit polls in 1976. Opening Another FrontRevelations in Bob Woodward's new book are putting the White House on the defense. Stay-at-Home ConservativesIs President Bush in a position to throw his party a lifeline? We'll find out on Election Day. Of Close Calls and ChaosThis year's midterms could turn into another endless election in which we won't know who won the day after the balloting. Remembering 2000, neither side wants to be out-lawyered in any litigation battle. Not a Pocketbook ElectionPocketbook elections occur when most people think the economy is either very bad or very good. This year, people are evenly divided about whether the economy is in good shape or not. Terrorism Still a Trump Card?Democrats have to convince voters that they are strong in confronting terrorism. Morphing Into Angry VotersThe early 1990s saw a wave of term-limit laws and anti-incumbent voting. Could voter concerns about Iraq, the economy, gas prices, and immigration trigger a repeat in 2006 and 2008? The Spread of DisillusionThe Bush administration's efforts to link Iraq with the war on terrorism could backfire. Pushing Prices DownThe decline in gasoline prices may be having an impact on attitudes about the economy. Spotlight on Center StageThe political center is alive and well in Colorado's 7th Congressional District. Did Bush Get It Backward?President Bush wants to put Iraq and Israel on the same side ("democracy"). But they're not. No Rallying 'Round BushOnly one Bush administration figure is getting high marks: Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The Clintons of New HampshireAfter Democrats lose a presidential race, their first impulse is to change the primary calendar. Staking Out a Middle GroundDemocrats need to go to the voters with some kind of position on Iraq. But what? The Primary MessagePresident Bush's standing among Connecticut Democrats is bad news for Joe Lieberman. Tehran Calls the ShotsIran is showing the West, by attacking the soft underbelly of Israeli security, that pushing it around will have consequences. The Middle East and the MidtermsAmerican politics is bitterly divided over Iraq. But not over the conflict in the Middle East. Taking On ArnoldPhil Angelides and Steve Westly are vying to take on California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger. A Bipartisan Ticket in 2008?A movement hoping to elect a bipartisan ticket in 2008 brings back memories of Ross Perot. The Politics of Illegal ImmigrationThe year's election is likely to be the first in which illegal immigration is a national issue. Split DecisionsPolls indicate that Republican voters are more divided over Iraq than are Democrats. Identifying FeaturesIn the 2008 presidential race, will she call herself Hillary Clinton or Hillary Rodham Clinton? Looking for Someone to BlameThe public's instinctive reaction to high gas prices is that somebody is up to no good. Teeth and SympathyAmericans want to do everything possible to keep more illegal immigrants from coming in. The Clinton in the Rearview MirrorThe American public now considers Bill Clinton more honest than George W. Bush. Forcing the DebateThe politics of immigration reform suggest that Washington may do what it does best: nothing. Beyond the CollapseThe old order has collapsed in Israel. But is this a new beginning, or another dead end? Perhaps 'Nothing' Actually Can WinVoters are in a mood to "throw the bums out." And most of the "bums" are Republicans. The Vietnam Syndrome MutatesAn "Iraq syndrome" may be emerging as disillusionment with the Iraq war intensifies. Pumped-Up PricesPresident Bush sounds worried that his party could pay for high gas prices at the polls. He should be worried. Those hit hardest by high gas prices say thay plan to vote Democratic in the fall. Bush Shuffles the DeckOn the port-security issue, Republicans can score political points by defying an unpopular president. Discontent Is Again in SeasonAnti-incumbent sentiment is growing, just as it did in the early 1990's. Along the Border, No Middle GroundArizona's 8th Congressional District is ground zero in the debate over illegal immigration. Naked Political Calculation?How John McCain is positioning himself to win the 2008 GOP presidential nomination. Electing TerroristsDevelopments in the Middle East over the past year raise serious questions about the Bush doctrine of protecting America's security by promoting democracy abroad. Challenging Bush's 'Safety' DefenseEvan Bayh, the normally quiet Hoosier, takes on President Bush directly, saying that the war in Iraq has made terrorism worse and the U.S. less safe. The Immigration DivideGeorge Bush's conservative base is cracking, and the two biggest tremors causing the split are big government and immigration. Cheney's Self-Inflicted WoundThe Cheney hunting incident confirmed a damaging stereotype about the vice president and the rest of the Bush administration—that they don't want people to know what's going on. Confidence GapPeople seem to have a problem when the president talks about "victory" in Iraq. Sharon's Party UnhingedCan a centrist political party thrive in Israel without Ariel Sharon? K Street's Capitol ConnectionRepublicans are hoping that the corruption issue won't hurt them in November. Rove's Anti-Itch PrescriptionRepublicans have a 2006 game plan, the same one they used in 2002 and 2004. The Lost MiddleIt might be tough for a Republican closely associated with the Bush administration to win the presidency. Define 'Victory'The American people want the same thing in Iraq that they wanted in Korea and Vietnam: Win and get out. Bush's Upward BlipIf U.S. troops are being withdrawn from Iraq by next fall, the issue could lose its political edge. Can Bush Recover?The key to a Bush recovery is still the economy. People are spending money, but they're worried. Bush's Cheney ProblemDick Cheney has become a problem for George W. Bush. Don't be surprised if Cheney's influence suffers. Failing Their Own TestsVoters seem to be sending President Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger the same message. Escalating the Rhetoric OffensivePresident Bush and Arnold Schwarzenegger are dealing with political setbacks in completely opposite ways. Ballot-Box PoisonArnold Schwarzenegger declared war on special interests. So far, the special interests are winning. Second-Term BluesPresident Bush is exhibiting classic symptoms. A Souter in a Skirt?If Miers changed once, how can Bush know she won't change again? Re-evaluating U.S. DebtIsn't there something worrisome about Communist China financing operations of the U.S. government? Bush's New LowFor presidents, a 40 percent approval rating means trouble. Leadership VacuumBush's strength has always been his image as a take-charge guy. Pervasive Economic PessimismPresident Bush faces growing economic pessimism and a looming budget crisis. Catastrophic FailureThe advantage could go to whichever party offers bold ideas for improving government responses to crisis. De-EscalationJohn Roberts's nomination may result in something totally unexpected—a civil debate on the issues. The Doctor in the SenateDid Bill Frist's break with the White House make him look like a politician or a physician? A Republican TownCould the war become a trauma that transforms Washington? One War or Two?The public views the war in Iraq and the war on terrorism as two different things. Hurling ThreatsThreat-making has suddenly taken over politics, thanks to the Supreme Court vacancy created by the retirement of Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. The Same War?The attack in London is likely to intensify the debate over the war in Iraq. From Denial to StonewallingCredibility, not criminality, is the biggest problem facing the White House in the Karl Rove controversy. How 'Extraordinary'?Faith-based politics? That's what will be needed if the filibuster compromise is going to work, particularly if President Bush gets the opportunity to fill a vacancy on the Supreme Court. The 33-Year GapMark Felt kept quiet for decades, watching others get rich off his story. Second Thoughts on IraqAmericans hear news of continuing violence in Iraq and wonder what, exactly, is being accomplished. Triumph of a Latino UnifierAs mayor of Los Angeles, James Hahn made the mistake of losing his base. Spoiling for a FightFights over the Supreme Court are most intense when ideological balance is at stake. A Casualty of IraqBritain's voters bloodied the nose of Blair over his handling of the war in Iraq. What Political Capital?Bush's job rating hit a new low for a President just three months into a second term. No Lawsuit Left BehindStates are suing Uncle Sam over education mandates in the "No Child" act. Revolt of the Propertied ClassThere's one tax that growing numbers of Americans resent: the property tax. The Power of the PollsSenate Republicans need to separate the filibuster issue from the Terri Schiavo case. The Strong and the WeakThe "culture of life" is a simple idea: the strong must protect the weak. The Public to Politicians: 'Keep Out'The Schiavo case helped neither party; every move was seen as political. Bush's Separation SolutionPresident Bush is pursuing a "separation strategy" in selling his Social Security ideas to the public: Separate the issue of personal investment accounts from the issue of the solvency of the Social Security system. The Trouble With HahnThe Los Angeles mayor has alienated the very groups that were his base. The DisconnectMost people say Bush's solution won't save Social Security's problem. The Permanent Negative CampaignAt least by one measure of partisanship, things in Washington are worse than ever before. Schwarzenegger Hits the RoadThe governor plans a promotional tour to market his redistricting idea. Back in the RingHoward Dean's election as chairman of the DNC shows that Democrats are ready to stand and fight. Crisis of Confidence?Confidence in Bush's handling of Social Security has been dropping since '01. Voting for the ProcessThe election rules in Iraq only make the Sunni problem more serious. Repackaging the MessageBush's address expanded the war on terrorism into a war on tyranny. About That Cowboy Rhetoric ...Bush voices regret over remarks that were crucial to his winning strategy. Ukraine's 'Orange Revolution'A victory for Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine would confirm the West's increasing influence there. Clinton and the DemocratsThe President's party has lost its power base, both in Washington and in the states. |
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