Saudi Arabia’s Rise?How friendly to US interests will Saudi Arabia be over the next five years?
69% Friendly enough “Saudi Arabia under King Abdullah is a very responsible and important nation. They remain better friends to the United States than we deserve.” “On some issues, the Saudis will be very friendly (oil in particular), but will not always match US interests with regard to the peace process, “America's weakened position in the Middle East is forcing Saudi Arabia to hedge its bets. It needs to put distance between itself and Washington--witness King Abdullah's statement in March that the U.S. occupation of Iraq is illegal. But Riyadh has no illusions about what Iran's ascendancy means for the region--or why it the United States as an ally. So the House of Saud won't venture too far from Washington's side.” “Saudi Arabia has no love for Iran, it needs the US to stay engaged to help contain the spillover from Iraq, but it has no interest in being seen as "close" to a U.S. Administration that is hated throughout the Middle East. So Saudi Arabia will be friendly enough to keep the U.S. engaged, while trying to create a perception of distance and independence from the U.S.” “Saudi Arabia is good on oil and bad on virtually everything else. As long s we're so addicted to that oil, it—and, sadly, we—are friendly enough.” “The Saudi's won't want to be left entirely on their own to deal with Iran. But that depends on the royal family staying in control, which is reasonably likely for the next five year, though much more uncertain for the next ten.” “A conservative regime keen to save its own skin, and fearful of the same threats (Iran, Shiite resurgence, terrorism) that confront US interests, will be in alignment with the US more often than not.” “The answer to this question will turn in the main on the quality of US policy, commitment, engagement, and actions in the region. The answer checked is based on the premise that the US gets things more right then wrong. Even if the latter, however, Saudi Arabia will still not be in a position where it can antagonize the US with impunity.” “the Saudi's won't want to be left entirely on their own to deal with Iran. But that depends on the royal family staying in control, which is reasonably likely for the next five year, though much more uncertain for the next ten.” “(But) this depends on how we define our interests.”
31% Not very friendly “Increasingly the Saudis see the bush administration (and the US as a whole) as a busted flush, unable to get much done following the disaster in Iraq, the stalemate in the peace process and the rise of Iran. It is precisely because of their feelings of US ineptitude that the Saudis are stepping up to the plate.” “S.A. will be increasingly pressured by the Wahhabist clerics and jihadists to provide more financial and political support against Israel and the US.” PARTICIPANTS (39): Kenneth Adelman, Graham Allison, Ronald Asmus, Samuel Berger, Daniel Blumenthal, Stephen Bosworth, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Daniel Byman, Warren Christopher, Wesley Clark, Richard Clarke, William Cohen, Ivo Daalder, Lawrence Eagleburger, Jay Garner, Leslie Gelb, Marc Grossman, Gary Hart, Bruce Hoffman, John Hulsman, Robert Hunter, Robert Kagan, David Kay, Andrew Krepinevich, Charles Kupchan, John Lehman, James Lindsay, Edward Luttwak, Richard Myers, William Nash, Joseph Nye, Carlos Pascual, Thomas Pickering, Kenneth Pollack, Joseph Ralston, Susan Rice, Wendy Sherman, James Steinberg, Anthony Zinni. Totals do not always add to 100% due to rounding.
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