Iran in IraqQ. Would a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq within the next year help or hinder Iran's objectives in the region?
“It will help [Iran’s] objectives, if it does not trigger a major reaction from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. If it does trigger that reaction, it will hinder Iran’s objectives.” "America fought Iraq and Iran won." “At this stage probably the U.S. presence helps Iran, so its departure can’t make things worse.” “No doubt that if we had to leave Iraq within a year, it would be ignobly done. Hence Iran would then seem the 800 pound gorilla in the region.” “Iran's objectives in the region can't be realized with the U.S. in the region. A U.S. withdrawal would be a big victory for the hardliners in Tehran.” “Help in the short-term. Iran will be able to say that America has been defeated. In the long-term, it is hard to say. If the Iraq civil war evolves into uncontrolled chaos, Iran may not be so happy. And Sunni states will likely come in behind the Sunni insurgency, fueling a wider regional conflict.” “The answer for the U.S. lies in 1) developing a comprehensive security structure and plan for the region; 2) offering Iran an end to sanctions and security guarantees in exchange for a) absolute transparency for its nuclear program; b) ending support for terrorism; and c) help in Iraq; and 3) on that basis engaging Iran directly.” “A withdrawal would likely mean unchecked Shiite dominance in Iraq, and great Iranian influence. However, a U.S. withdrawal could also precipitate a full-scale civil war and the regional spread of the conflict, which is not in Iran's interest. Iran wants a stable Iraq dominated by the Shiites, not a failed state that exports violence and instability.” “We are truly between a rock and a hard place on this one.”
“Hinder, but only if we do not just abandon Iraq, and instead disengage [while] keeping modest, holding garrisons in a couple of bases.” “Let’s not count on the Iraqis being as servile to Tehran as now appears likely; that’s just not likely, given their history.” “Withdrawal would hinder Iran if done properly,” “Withdrawals must be tied to and subordinate to a viable political strategy. We can't just take the troops out and cross our fingers.” “Iran relies on the U.S. presence to provide for relative stability, give Iran a role in assisting major Shi'ia elements in Iraq, and to assure long-term democracy and therefore a Shi'ia ascendancy in Iraq.” “It would release us precisely from the entanglement that Iran has taken such tremendous satisfaction from finding is in. Our extrication would also likely result in a reversal of roles, with Iran being sucked into and becoming stuck in the Iraq morass much as we have been.” “It will hinder more than help. Right now this is a freebie for Iran. We protect a pro-Iranian Iraqi government, and our troop commitment ties us down. As we withdraw, the parties in Iraq will need to accommodate each other more, which might check Iranian influence. And Iran will have to deal with the regional opposition to its attempts to dominate Iraq.” “Certainly over the longer run it would hinder Iran's interests in [portraying] itself as the defender of the faith and the major bulwark against U.S. domination of the Middle East. It would also throw a large element of uncertainly into Iran's calculation as to what type of neighbor it will have in Iraq. The Shiia inferiority complex ensures that even if a Shiia government emerges in Iraq after a U.S. withdrawal, Iran would continue to worry that it might be usurped at some point by a Sunni strongman and a very hostile government accompanied by an autonomous Kurdish state with expansionist goals. Iran's preference for a stable, Shiia government that controls all of Iraq would go out the window with a U.S. withdrawal. “
“Both A and B. In the short term, American withdrawal would open up new opportunities for Iran to make mischief and exert influence, creating a sense that Iran was the rising new hegemony. Over the longer term, Iran's own internal weaknesses and its probably inevitable inability to gain control over the chaos of Iraq will likely swamp its short-term gains.” “Neither. Iran was greatly helped by our invasion of Iraq, which removed one of its arch enemies and put in power people with close ties to Tehran. The damage has been done - and whether we stay or leave will have no real impact on Iran's regional ascendancy.” “This depends on the circumstances of a U.S. withdrawal (or redeployment). If we pull back our troops and at the same time engage in serious regional diplomacy to bring stability to Iraq, Iran's capacity to increase its own influence would probably decline.” “Have little effect. Do we know what those objectives are?” “[The question is] impossible to answer as stated.” PARTICIPANTS (43): Kenneth Adelman, Graham Allison, Ronald Asmus, Samuel Berger, Daniel Blumenthal, Max Boot, Stephen Bosworth, Zbigniew Brzezinski, Daniel Byman, Wesley Clark, Richard Clarke, William Cohen, Ivo Daalder, Douglas Feith, Jay Garner, Leslie Gelb, Marc Grossman, John Hamre, Gary Hart, Bruce Hoffman, John Hulsman, Robert Hunter, Tony Judt, Robert Kagan, David Kay, Andrew Krepinevich, Charles Kupchan, John Lehman, James Lindsay, Edward Luttwak, John McLaughlin, Jessica Mathews, Richard Myers, William Nash, Joseph Nye, Carlos Pascual, Thomas Pickering, Kenneth Pollack, Joseph Ralston, Susan Rice, Wendy Sherman, Ann-Marie Slaughter, James Steinberg. Not all participants answered both questions.
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