Nate Silver sorts through the various Maine marriage polls:
A couple of weeks ago, I gave the marriage ban 3:1 odds against passing. I might lower that slightly to about 5:2 given the PPP poll, but the fundamentals remain fairly good for proponents of marriage equity. If the marriage ban passes, the pro-gay marriage side is really going to need to rethink its messaging strategy (my suggestion on how to do so here.)
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2009/10/the-turnout-in-maine/195181/
