Mousavi has decided to duck a confrontation at Friday prayers and is prepping for a Saturday rally:
While what Khamenei says tomorrow matters,
how the crowds behave could have greater consequences. We know that
Mousavi has been debating about how to respond. Mousavi initially
wanted his people to ring the university and shout so that Khamenei
could hear them. Mehdi Karrubi, his ally and fellow unsuccessful
presidential election candidate, wants his people to attend and wear
black. Then Mousavi changed his mind and told his people not to attend.
He knows that this could lead to violence, which will discourage some
of his supporters from demonstrating and dissuade others from joining
him. In addition, the regime will accuse him of politicizing Friday
prayers (which is the regime's prerogative). Many of Mousavi's
supporters are highly conservative people who believe in the
fundamental value of the Islamic Republic, but do not care for
Ahmadinejad and his antics. Having them with him strengthens his hand.
Losing them will marginalize him. He has now decided to hold his next
march on Saturday, and he will be joined by former President Mohammad
Khatami.
It appears that the idea that Mousavi will not be at Friday prayers may have been deliberate disinformation from the regime. We'll see soon enough.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2009/06/what-tomorrow-could-bring/200046/
