Nate Silver crunches the numbers of increasing support for marriage equality in various states. Here's his conclusion:
The state has roughly average levels of religiosity, including a fair number of white evangelicals, and the model predicts that if Iowans voted on a marriage ban today, it would pass with 56.0 percent of the vote. By 2012, however, the model projects a toss-up: 50.4 percent of Iowans voting to approve the ban, and 49.6 percent opposed. In 2013 and all subsequent years, the model thinks the marriage ban would fail.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2009/04/will-iowans-vote-to-keep-marriage/203585/
