In order to conclude the Electoral College has tightened to the point where the outcome on November 4 is at least moderately uncertain, I would want to see the following between now and the election. Call it the 2/2/2 condition:
John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
Not happening yet, at least.
This article available online at:
http://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/10/what-would-tightening-look-like/209503/
