Winning The White House Without The White Vote

Ron Brownstein explains what demographic change means for politics:

If the minority share of the vote increases in 2012 by the same rate it has grown in presidential elections since 1992, it will rise to about 28 percent nationally. By itself, that could substantially alter the political playing field from 2010, when the minority vote share sagged to just 22 percent. It means that if Obama can maintain, or even come close to, the four-fifths share of minority votes that he won in 2008, he could win a majority of the national popular vote with even less than the 43 percent of whites he attracted last time.

That was the gist of my column last Sunday. Money quote:

The hope of many was that Obama's presidency would usher in a post-racial politics. The truth is it has done nothing of the kind. But what's fascinating is how for the first time, this is actually backfiring. If you were a political party, what base would you prefer: a multiracial coalition that keeps growing in numbers and clout - or a largely white cohort defined in part by suspicion of multicultural America?

Think of it as the final reckoning of Nixon's Southern strategy.

Nixon rebuilt his party on sand.

2006-2011 archives for The Daily Dish, featuring Andrew Sullivan

What Advice Would You Give to Adults?

"If you have a problem, go meditate or go on a vacation. Don't think about it."

Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register with Disqus.

Please note that The Atlantic's account system is separate from our commenting system. To log in or register with The Atlantic, use the Sign In button at the top of every page.

blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

The Horrors of Rat Hole Mining

"The river was our source of water. Now, the people won't touch it."

Video

What's Your Favorite Slang Word?

From "swag" to "on fleek," tweens choose.

Video

Cryotherapy's Dubious Appeal

James Hamblin tries a questionable medical treatment.

Video

Confessions of Moms Around the World

In Europe, mothers get maternity leave, discounted daycare, and flexible working hours.

Video

How Do Trees Know When It's Spring?

The science behind beautiful seasonal blooming

Just In