The Odds Of A Civil War

More

Erik Voeten applies a study on civil wars and foreign intervention to Libya:

Stephen Walt points us to this working paper (ungated) by Duke University's Alexander Downes, who examines whether foreign imposed regime changes increase the likelihood of civil war. Downes finds that the answer is a clear "yes" if the purpose of the foreign intervention is to install a new leader in power as opposed to restoring a recently overthrown leader.

The likelihood of civil war is especially strong in poor and/or ethnically heterogeneous countries and if the regime change occurs in conjunction with defeat in an interstate war. Downes uses matching to deal with the obvious problem that foreign countries are most likely to intervene in cases that are violent to begin with (matching tries to create balance between a "treatment" group and a "control" group based on observed characteristics such as geographic location, democracy, and development. Matching does not control for unobserved differences that may make civil war more likely in countries where foreigners intervene).

Jump to comments

2006-2011 archives for The Daily Dish, featuring Andrew Sullivan

Get Today's Top Stories in Your Inbox (preview)

CrossFit Versus Yoga: Choose a Side

How a workout becomes a social identity


Join the Discussion

After you comment, click Post. If you’re not already logged in you will be asked to log in or register. blog comments powered by Disqus

Video

CrossFit Versus Yoga: Choose a Side

How a workout becomes a social identity

Video

Is Technology Making Us Better Storytellers?

The minds behind House of Cards and The Moth weigh in.

Video

A Short Film That Skewers Hollywood

A studio executive concocts an animated blockbuster. Who cares about the story?

Video

In Online Dating, Everyone's a Little Bit Racist

The co-founder of OKCupid shares findings from his analysis of millions of users' data.

Video

What Is a Sandwich?

We're overthinking sandwiches, so you don't have to.

Video

Let's Talk About Not Smoking

Why does smoking maintain its allure? James Hamblin seeks the wisdom of a cool person.

Writers

Up
Down