Andrew Exum reacts to the Afghanistan policy review:
[T]he war in Afghanistan is cyclical in nature. As one Afghan employee of a nongovernmental organization told a member of General Petraeus’s staff recently, “In Afghanistan, God is very fair. He gives both sides a chance. In the summer, he is on the Taliban’s side. In the winter, he switches sides and is on yours.”
The United States and its NATO allies are busily attempting to consolidate the gains of 2010 by establishing reliable local security forces and connecting the Afghan government to traditional authority structures in southern Afghanistan. But we will not know for sure how well the strategy is going in Afghanistan until late summer, after the Taliban has attempted to return to control in the south and God has again changed sides.